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This is not the TOP - GV is WRONG



October 16, 2009 – Comments (8)

As my fans know, i think the market is partly psychological.

Well i was thinking about my top call last week, and how i might have been close to right, when GV posted his 'Ringing the bell at the top' post the week after, calling for about 110.

Now i follow GV, and have learned not to follow his call without staying in touch in case he changes his call. It's known that i think he's great, though almost to deep and hard and fast for me.

But i have to say, it's not the top, because if i was, MY top call at 107 was 'mostly right'; and that's just not possible. Promise.

There is no way possible that i am seeing this correctly, and on purpose. Facts are facts, and the fact is; if i think it's the top, it's not.

So, of course i'm not telling you better fools what to do, but i will share me advice with the newbies: Don't go all short all at once. Try putting some trailing sell limits on your high beta picks, but don't throw all your money onto any one thing too fast. I'm just sayin'.

This pullback will be short, and for some reason it will continue to dog north till both i and GV are wrong. I know that sounds stupid. "When will it ever pull back?" and "there is no such thing as a jobless recovery".

But if i was right, and positioned. . . . no, i'm not right. promise. short correction and sidways to 1150 till after Thanksgiving??


Just ramblin' my thoughts to my homies.


PS, i'm always wrong. Don't listen to me.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 16, 2009 at 10:16 PM, ChrisGraley (28.63) wrote:

Did Cramer call a top?

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#2) On October 17, 2009 at 12:10 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Putting a stop on a volatile stock (especially in a volatile market), in my opinion, is asking for a guaranteed loss. 

Here's a thought: Make sure you get a bargain and hold till it reaches or exceeds fair value.  This strategy is immune to market fluctuations, as long as you know how to evaluate bargains.

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#3) On October 17, 2009 at 1:00 AM, mdabat (< 20) wrote:

Pathetic post, -1 Rec.

You criticize GV and this is the analysis you come up with? If you think its the top, then its not? This is definitely just another fool using GV's name in his blog to get a little more popular.

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#4) On October 17, 2009 at 1:48 AM, booyahh (< 20) wrote:

You criticize GV and this is the analysis you come up with? If you think its the top, then its not?

That's right.

And all the analysis in the world won't make a difference anyway: people have been using fancy analysis to call the top for months now.

But if you think this is the top, by all means go ahead and start shorting. Go ahead, bet against the market, and lose your money, like many have been doing since March !!!

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#5) On October 17, 2009 at 3:28 AM, XtremeNeoCon (< 20) wrote:

PS, i'm always wrong.

Wrong,,, lets see. I was wrong once. Well I THOUGHT I was wrong about something. Turns out -- I was only wrong about being wrong.

I'm right so often, it doesn't even excite me any more.... 

And whats wrong with that?

Rec for a goofy light hearted post.



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#6) On October 17, 2009 at 9:57 AM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

mdabat (< 20) Easy kid, read my post again. I did not criticize GV, and if you want my full analysis, you can read the rest of my stuff.

I don't need GV's name to make me popular, i have his friendship, which makes me even more popular

Chris, you got the joke? !

Bullishbabo:  I'm not trying to argue. I was just trying to chat a short note.
   When i said some stops, i meant on stocks you were ahead in. I just meant that if you were 50/100 points ahead, and wanted to go away for a few days  without worrying. . . . . . . .
   And how do you find fair value about lying companies? lol

Booyah, I wonder what your score will look like in December?

Xtreme: thanks. Have a good weekend.

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#7) On October 17, 2009 at 12:47 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Yeah, I think my comment was a bit too serious.  I read the "don't listen to me" part a bit late.  Anyway, here's the thing: if you think all companies lie, shouldn't you not invest in them at all? To answer your question, there are definitely companies that lie and ones that are fraudulent.  You don't have to have ridiculous diversification, but that's where 10-15 minimum positions come in.  If you pick them right, you can withstand a few dropping like rocks.  How do you pick them right? The first place to start is to read Ben Graham.  I believe I got better at investing even after reading The Intelligent Investor the second time around.

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#8) On October 17, 2009 at 1:42 PM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Every time you talk to me i learn something.

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