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AdirondackFund (< 20)

This IS the Top: The Sequel

Recs

12

February 12, 2010 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: DOW , DNDN

Tomorrow markets will again begin a new crash, only this time there will be no long drawn out reflex rally as we saw from the March '08 lows.  This one is going to be the famed 'throwing in the towel crash' of legend and will be absolutely brutal.  I have no idea what the alibi will be this time, but I am sure our imaginative Press Corps. will come up with something, or perhaps more to the point events in the world are going to come to a head very quickly.  There is even the possibility of a major nuclear strike against Iran as a result of their continued badgering of the ciivilized world since declaring their Revolution and taking American Hostages in 1979.  Already money managers are closing deals on obtaining cash loans, some of which will be repaid quickly.  This is the famed 'run to the phone bank' that occurs on the floor of the NYSE and is opined of seriously by the legendary speculator Jesse Livermore in his book 'Reminisences of a Stock Market Operator'.  I've done these we will crash posts before and naturally the Bulls will always chime in with their opinions and controversies, but please use your good sense and ignore them.  'Forgive them Lord, for they know not what they do."  Here's the link on the last crash call, you be the judge.  I'm just trying to push the poor boy on the bike out of the way of a Bus the moment before he gets hit.  Nemaste'

Here's the previous post and link:

 http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=315165&t=01006181459549445759  

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 12, 2010 at 1:26 AM, Tastylunch (29.29) wrote:

Interesting. I believe tomorrow is the last trading day in the Chinese markets  before they shut down for a week for the lunar new year.

Well if that happens I'll be sure to FAZ and TZA it up.

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#2) On February 12, 2010 at 1:29 AM, checklist34 (99.70) wrote:

good call last time... stocks only went up another couple few hundred on the dow from that one?

and if you think we see anything remotely near the march bottoms again, ever, you are drunker than 3 dead hookers.  i just typed that, fact.

 

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#3) On February 12, 2010 at 2:36 AM, traderbach (< 20) wrote:

checklist,

You just gave me the best chuckle in my CAPS experience.  You surely have a silver tongue!

 Gratefully, traderbach.

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#4) On February 12, 2010 at 8:16 AM, cthomas1017 (96.29) wrote:

Curious, Adi...  What makes you so sure that today is the day?  Typically you give excellent rationale for your prognostications, but here you posed the Iran nuke thing as a "possibility".  Is there something you're not telling us?

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#5) On February 12, 2010 at 8:34 AM, russiangambit (29.30) wrote:

Well, I do expect market lower today in front of  3 days holiday . I am not sure though it is the beggining of the big sell off. It seems to me the big money is divided now - some are buying on the dips and some think the market has lower to go to about 1030 at least becased on technicals.

IBD has " the market in correction " outlook currently and they were pretty good with catching the turns in this market last 2 years even though their metodology is pretty simple. But it worked. So at this point I think the market is going lower  but slowly.

The earnings are good this quarter so unless something drastic happens it is hard to see the big money abandoning the ship completely in the very near future unelss some serious deleveraging event forces them off the ship. Many are still buying on the dip. The deleveraging event could be withdrawl of liquidity - there are signs of that , this is why we are already 7% lower from the top. But it is hard to tell how violent the reaction will be to that and how soon. China is tightening and FED will startat the end of March so we should see people anticipating it in about a month or so. It could get ugly at theat point, but FED could always come up with something else or China could change its mind.

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#6) On February 12, 2010 at 8:51 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Hey Gambit.  It looks like you win 'Guess The Alibi', a favorite of mine in market lore.  I had my bet on an Iranian Nuke strike.  You got me there.  Here's the link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0qGx0mAHiAs&pos=1

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#7) On February 12, 2010 at 8:53 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Hi cthomas.  There's a lot that I'm not telling you.  I think I need to wrote a book. 

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#8) On February 12, 2010 at 9:02 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Checklist.  What are you talking about?  The call last time was a CRASH at 1150.  A CRASH.  We then fell to 1044.  Is that not self explanatory enough, or am I missing something truly basic about the limits of words and communication?  I'm incredibly tired working on this prediction the past 3 days and my reasons are near endless, and I do apologize for not having the strength to fully explain, but it's important for people to know.  They will believe what they will anyway, but I'm trying to do just my part.  It is all true. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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#9) On February 12, 2010 at 9:13 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

cthomas....I owe you a better explanation.  Bottom Line today's futures are pointing down to an amount and a degree which will cause a failure in a triple zigzag formation in the S&P 500 which will lead the HFT machines to read it as a CRASH.  There's more to it than that, but that is the very bottom line of it all. 

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#10) On February 12, 2010 at 9:17 AM, cthomas1017 (96.29) wrote:

Thanks, Adi.  That makes sense and I appreciate your illumination.  Now if you would only write that book.  Can you have first draft ready before next Tuesday morning? ;)

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#11) On February 12, 2010 at 9:20 AM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

Today, the market will open lower, but toward the end of the day, the market will explode (180+ points on the DOW is my guess)...

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#12) On February 12, 2010 at 9:43 AM, russiangambit (29.30) wrote:

Another thing dragging the market lower that I forgot to mention is the dollar/ commodity carry trade unwind.

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#13) On February 13, 2010 at 2:34 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Prechter seems to think it will now crash starting Tuesday, we did get the 'c' wave failure I was looking for, and now the Motley Fool has chimed in with an email on the subject to all members.  The forces are gathering.  The carry trade unwind is a problem as is the upcoming mortgage reset in March.  If we get out of this, I have no idea how we do it.  "The Cipher House Rules'.    

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#14) On February 17, 2010 at 7:04 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Ad:

 How'd that call work out for you?

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#15) On February 17, 2010 at 7:37 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

But one thing is for sure: Adi has a great consistency. 

Back in Dec. when he called the top, his rating was 27. The other day when he called the top, his rating was 27. Today, his rating is 27.

Way to profit from knowing when is market going to crash, Adi... :)

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#16) On February 19, 2010 at 11:28 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Truely brain dead rationale by dragonLZ, Donnerv, and Checklist.  Truly amazing....   The last warning was at 1150,  more than a few have failed to read properly?  Tra la....  Great CAPS scores guys....but what do you do for work?  CAPS is not work....you do know that, right?

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#17) On May 03, 2010 at 10:38 PM, dragonLZ (99.38) wrote:

I've done these we will crash posts before and naturally the Bulls will always chime in with their opinions and controversies, but please use your good sense and ignore them.  'Forgive them Lord, for they know not what they do."  Here's the link on the last crash call, you be the judge.  I'm just trying to push the poor boy on the bike out of the way of a Bus the moment before he gets hit.  Nemaste'

Forgive him Lord as he thought he's smarter than the bulls...

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