Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

AdirondackFund (< 20)

This IS the Top.

Recs

15

December 20, 2009 – Comments (23) | RELATED TICKERS: DOW , DNDN

You're probably tired of hearing this already, but the evidence has now mounted to the point at which stocks have no place to run or hide.  All angle lines of support have become resistence, all oscillators and summations have been exhausted....and there is nothing left to do but fall in price from here.  Even the Santa Claus Rally, much ballyhooed, has now also run out of time.  No one will be waiting to see what will happen on the last day of shopping before Christmas and the performance of Retailers this year will prove God awful...as expected and covered in an earlier post about Macy's and retail in general.  There is probably one more chance at getting stocks sold and shorts and puts attached to portfolios, but that chance will likely end early Monday morning as part of the continuation bounce from last Friday's close.  The rise in volume on Friday was the last missing piece in the puzzle as 480 Million shares were traded on the NYSE as compared to approximately 200 Million per day, on average.  That's a bit more than twice daily volume and shows that investors are already looking to bail  They were just waiting for their Options to expire.  The best place for insiders to hide volume is during Expiration Week, as the 'alibi' is already built in and volume is expected on these trading days....but which volume, and in which direction?.  Whenever stocks rally to a 50% retracement of previous losses, whenever angle lines of support are broken, whenever market breadth turns bearish, and whenever volume rises significantly...look out below.  These events rarely occur simultaneously, but when they do they spell real trouble for share prices. 

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 20, 2009 at 4:29 PM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

A quick look at your CAPS holdings shows you also thought the top was back in July when you green-thumbed all bear ETFs and red-thumbed all bull ETFs.

How did that go for you?

p.s. You are down 90 points on each of the following: EDZ, SKX, MWJ, FAZ, MWN, TYP, TZA, BGZ,... Your score is 2,000 points in red, your rating is 27...  Not the greatest call of all...

Report this comment
#2) On December 20, 2009 at 4:42 PM, tkell31 (24.15) wrote:

Lol, enjoy being broke.  The last two years have culled the herd so to speak.  Plenty of companies went bankrupt and others are still much closer to historic lows then they are to recent highs.  The funny thing about predictions is when you are looking for something everything seems to point towards what you want it to be.

Report this comment
#3) On December 20, 2009 at 5:01 PM, Sozurmama (22.36) wrote:

First off, not to brag, but im pretty well known around here as the guy that called dow 10k to THE DAY, and since this was my only call ever, my accuracy in publicly predicting market activites is 100%. One has to be very careful to maintain such an impeccable record, and i am willing to place it on the line today. We are not at the top. We will absolutely reach levels above friday's close before any kind of major downward move takes place. I will add a third prediction, we WILL experience a major move to the downside at some point in the future, but only at a moment in time AFTER we are higher than fridays close. I will be sure to keep you guys posted as these events unfold themselves in impressively exact detail.

Report this comment
#4) On December 20, 2009 at 5:01 PM, Option1307 (29.76) wrote:

Your score is 2,000 points in red, your rating is 27

hahaha, I love people that use this stat as a measure of someone's ability. Caps is a game...

Report this comment
#5) On December 20, 2009 at 5:17 PM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

option1307, but don'y you find it interesting how's always the people with bad scores who say stuff like "CAPS is only a game"...

p.s. I just tried to say Adironduck has once alraedy predicted the top with his CAPS calls of green-thumbing bear ETF's...that's all.

Report this comment
#6) On December 20, 2009 at 5:33 PM, Option1307 (29.76) wrote:

p.s. I just tried to say Adironduck has once alraedy predicted the top with his CAPS calls of green-thumbing bear ETF's...that's all.

Fair enough point.

but don'y you find it interesting how's always the people with bad scores who say stuff like "CAPS is only a game"...

Not true. There are a ton of Fools with high scores that say the same thing. Caps is a great place for stock esearch etc, but its just a game and is not a very accurate representation of real life.

You know what I find interesting, that you've been here 4/5 months and have been running your mouth every since. Hilarious!

We can leave it at that...

Report this comment
#7) On December 20, 2009 at 5:46 PM, ozzfan1317 (78.58) wrote:

We will hit new highs before we have another major correction. Just my opinion but I dont see two crashes like so many seem to think.

Report this comment
#8) On December 20, 2009 at 6:03 PM, tkell31 (24.15) wrote:

Option, you took a very valid point, ignored what you you wanted to focus on a score then when someone counters you immediately accuse somone of running their mouth.  The problem I see with that is you have no problem running your own mouth, making stupid, yes stupid, points then trying to end the conversation.  Have fun being a troll.

Report this comment
#9) On December 20, 2009 at 6:10 PM, Option1307 (29.76) wrote:

tkell31  

p.s. I just tried to say Adironduck has once alraedy predicted the top with his CAPS calls of green-thumbing bear ETF's...that's all.

Fair enough point.

Did you not see this from above, I agreed with DragonLZ that this was a valid point.

Report this comment
#10) On December 20, 2009 at 6:11 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@dragonLZ.  You need to read a bit more closely.  I joined CAPS in 2006, won the 100 in 100 charm, the 'lightning charm', went to 95th percentile ranking....and quickjly lost interest in the game.  It's boring.  There is nothing real-time to the exercise.  Measuring relative performance to S&P 500 Indexes is 'make pretend', and scoring points is far too easy and not a factor in final rankings and calculations....only accurracy is.  Any system is flawed, but CAPS will not help you become a good trader since executions here are random at best.

I've been sort of busy, as markets are active, and I rarely come to CAPS since there is real work to do.  You might also notice, from reading, that no trades were done in my CAPS account through the crash.  I frankly didn't have the time. 

Report this comment
#11) On December 20, 2009 at 7:28 PM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

Adirondack, once again, all I meant is to say you already called the top back in July, and it wasn't such a great call.

However, I do realize I didn't have to be so mean about it. Sorry.

Good Luck!

Report this comment
#12) On December 20, 2009 at 7:31 PM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

AdirondackFund  I rarely come to CAPS is a lie. I can count the days u made your picks. U have been on CAPS a lot. If scoring points is so easy please figure out how to score some in the present. The fact is beating the market is hard when making so many picks. Plus the fact u are market timing does not help. Betting agaisnt a cheap market doesnt usually produce good resaults. If CAPS is so bad, get off it. Personally I think CAPS is wonderful.

Report this comment
#13) On December 22, 2009 at 9:40 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@ dragonLZ and valuemoney

You both need to read a tad better than you are currently demonstrating.  CAPS is a GAME.  It doesn't merit a great deal of attention, unless you have NOTHING better to do.  There was a top in May, and another one in June.  Try reading...a bit closer.  You are both missing the point.

Report this comment
#14) On December 22, 2009 at 10:20 AM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

You want resistance? Earnings will continue to be the floor behind this rally--as it should be in any rally. I will tell you that 100% of the stocks I own--I have very limited exposure to consumer discretionary--have been beating estimates by a large margin and upping forecasts into fiscal 2010. With the the continuation of this trend, and a vast majority of companies beating estimates there is NO motivation for a significant retracement. By the way, retailer expectations this holiday season are so low, they WILL largely be exceeded just as earnings were earlier this year. Have you been out shopping recently!? I will tell you that based on very simple observation, that store traffic seems on par with years passed. I live nearby a strip mall, and virtually every time since the first week in December I made the mistake of passing it to get the the nearest highway, it took me a good 20 minutes to travel 1000ft! People are shopping and buying. Open your eyes!

Now, lastly, I love how bears point out the markets 50% move off its lows and say this is simply "too far, too fast".  The market should have never been that low in March, from a valuation perspective. Well then lets say based on business expectations and valuations the Dow should have bottomed around 8500. Then an ~2000/25% point move since March is certainly not "too far, too fast" by historical measures. 

 

Report this comment
#15) On December 22, 2009 at 5:15 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@ moneyworksforme

Apparently you missed the important news of the day.  Q3 GDP was revised downward, which means two important things.  Your Government is lying to you and expectations of increases in the velocity of money are highly overblown.  As much as the Government would like everyone to believe that the economy is improving, it is in fact not.  Facts are what portend future movements in share prices, not lies or Opinions.  That being said, it is absolutely necessary for the Government to lie to everyone, otherwise there really would be serious problems worldwide.  But exactly how long do you expect people to believe anythig that comes out of Government, any more than they did Enron or MCI?  The Government is running an MCI and Enron style economy, and for the life of me I don't understand how anyone would think this is smart, particularly given the facts that this approach has already been disproven many times in many different places.  If you like Stocks, you buy them NOW...  I'm out.    

Report this comment
#16) On December 22, 2009 at 5:25 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

A correction, yes, but probably not a MAJOR correction of more than 5-10%.  Remember, there is cheap cash by the billions out there, and it's not changing for another six months or so.  Any correction is purely the result of profit-taking and set up for more upward movement.

Now, when interest rates start to climb, they will do so ever so slowly - .25% at a time (maybe less).  There will be a gradual pullback, but not a dramatic rush for the door.

Why would anyone put their money in cash at 0 - 3% when they can still crush that with market returns of 5 - 10%?

My 2 cents.

Fool on!

Report this comment
#17) On December 22, 2009 at 11:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.41) wrote:

2009 predictions...

Report this comment
#18) On December 26, 2009 at 1:56 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@ dragonlz

From your link, I see that this has been a recent 'call' for you, so your jump to defense is understandable.  The precise targets that I'm looking at here are 1150 on the S&P, with a 10 point overage that could easily get the average as high as 1160.  But I am quite sure that will be the end.  Whatever the exact calculations may prove to be in the major indexes, there is always the rest of the market which should be considered as well,  a tale that shows losses in things like RUT, or sideways movements indicating a patient distribution. 

Report this comment
#19) On December 26, 2009 at 2:24 PM, kirkydu (93.72) wrote:

While what AF describes is usually true, it is not always true.  A bear wedge can often shoot up in a spec run.  I think it is possible it happens here for a quarter or so.  While I am not a big fan of U.S. equities in general over the next several years, preferring foriegn and commodities, as I think the economic overhang eventually whacks us hard, if you are a trader, there might be money to be made on the upside yet, and it could be a big up move.  For me, I'm a chicken little and hedge most of my U.S. exposure.

Report this comment
#20) On January 21, 2010 at 2:10 PM, Judochop172 (26.89) wrote:

Looks like you were right on at 1150.

Report this comment
#21) On January 22, 2010 at 4:27 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@ Judochop.  Thanks for noticing. 

Report this comment
#22) On January 22, 2010 at 4:57 PM, chrisheck (72.66) wrote:

Why would anyone put their money in cash at 0 - 3% when they can still crush that with market returns of 5 - 10%?.....................

Because when it comes to money, a lot of people react with emotion. The fear of losing money often outweighs the probability of investment gains over longer periods of time.

 

chris 

Report this comment
#23) On January 22, 2010 at 5:03 PM, bigcat1969 (92.35) wrote:

Well if you put your money into a major US market index fund January 1, you have now lost money for the year, so that 3% looks fairly good.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement