March 19, 2008
– Comments (33)
It looked like they had thousands of things they needed to credit.
I loved it.
that was great dwot........
congrats too... you passed up TMFbent on the rec list
Thanks floridabuilder. I was lookig at how many recommends a post needs to get on the first page of most recommended. Need over 50...
I loved that.
I'm not doing another blog until this one get 50 recommends... So, new "blogs" show up in the comments unil then.
Currently there has been no focus what-so-ever on the aging population and there is this crazy garbage out there that the pension system won't be in trouble until 2040.
Well, America allowed the financial sector to f--- people over so severely that I say the serious problem start showing up by 2015. The federal debt is out of control. Indeed, sometime I wonder if it won't collapse even sooner as the last couple months the treasury auctions have fell short. Not being able to borrow is a serious problem...
Anyway, Panzner brought up the retirement system today.
A concern I expressed in my very recent commodity post was about funds buying this stuff up and pushing the price up. This article suggests the crash in commodities this week is the funds selling and that gold will retest below $900.
And this one, oil demand down 3.2% over the same period last year -- "pushed the prices up?"
Iron ore is "cheap" relative to other metals. Copper is about $7000/ton compared to $100-200/ton for iron ore.
Consider that the boom gave the shipping industry complete pricing control and you see things like, shoot, I can't find the link... Shipping to China costs $20/ton from Austrailia versus about $60/ton from the Americas.
Iron ore for China from Americas isn't going to be able to compete.
Well, this is the shortest post I've seen... The titile USA Today's Top Economic Forecaster.
Well, you can follow the links and see if your sense of humor is as warped as mine...
I have posted this before, but I use google reader and they have this shared links feature. This is my shared reading page.
Google reader is the best reader for how I work that I've found on the internet. I tried a few others prior and nothing but slow downs, upgrades that destroy them and other problems.
Is this for real?
"Much of the selling in gold was due to a giant macro hedge fund that had to sell positions in order to meet investor redemptions. John Meriwether, who if you remember was the guy who set up the Long-Term Capital hedge fund that blew up in 1998, apparently faced huge redemptions yesterday in a group of billion dollar hedge funds. His Relative Value Opportunity fund suffered a 24% loss in its fixed income fund. He also has a billion dollar macro hedge fund down around 9% this year. It is likely that he had to sell gold and commodity positions in this fund to meet redemptions or get off margin"
This one I'm reading is insane and if you don't read it and pick up the insanity, well, I would suggest start putting your wealth into the equation and think about it in terms of how long it takes you to work for their "costs." Naked Capitalism consistently has good posts, although they are not easy reading posts.
What is insane is that transaction costs run at 4%. WTF? And then further performance fees are another 4-5%. This can only work in an out-of-control bull market, plain and simple. There is absolutely nothing sustainable about it and to have your money in something like this is crazy. No question, absolutely no question this kind of thing is going to come unwinding with an explosive implosion.
There are something like 5000 hedge funds. I have no idea on the numbers using leverage, and working as described above, but this kind of crap probably pushed the market up beyond reasonable levels and I suspect before everything settles things are going to be incredibly below the mean...
Listen to this...
Mish has something to say about what I quoted in my "is this for real" comment above.
I have to say, I do love the way Mish writes, "history is supposed to rhyme, not repeat..."
Seriously, when I read that this guy is now responsible for a second disaster, he's a corporate psychopath, and they should be locked up, imho....
But, think this through, every time one of these hedge fund things comes unwinding, someone gets slaughered and this time it is people who have been following the "hard asset" camp. Will it recover? Personally, I don't think the risk is worth the gamble.
haha sorry dwot the fool only lets me rec a pots once. Good luck getting 21 more recs!
ask nicely and i might consider giving you a rec... ;)
Ok Doug, I'm asking nicely... I thought this song was hilarious...
On another point, here's how shipping is going to tank. They've had this enormous pricing power and many have rushed in with new ship orders. Well, those will come online and now we have news of virtually zero trade growth. So now there is empty ships and that will force the price down as shipper's try to book their ships to capacity...
Growth in world trade has contracted from 6.9% to 0.2%...
By "nicely," I mean using a certain word that begins with p and ends with e and rhymes with "squeeze."
What can I say, I only respond to nice, girl-next-door midwest pleasantries.
good point about the shippers too.
Dwot.. that is so great!!!! Thanks for the smile! You got my rec.
Now, could you be a doll and please tell me how you go about embedding a video clip into a blog post? I have tried using the embed code from youtube, for i.e., with no luck.
As for your comment above, that's interesting... I have been bullish recently on shippers carrying iron ore, since their contracts are often booked through for several years in advance and China is still importing massive amounts of iron ore (although the other day they stopped permitting ore from two companies into their ports as a diplomatic move to re-negotiate pricing). I'll take a look at your link, but only if you teach me the video-embed trick. :)
Sinchiruna I just use the embed that I copy from the video when it is finished where it has the how to embed link.
My looking at the shippers was that they definitely had a couple years booked, but each year in advance had less days book. But, they take on new ships and if they can't put those ships to work they will eat at existing margins because ships cost money to own regardless of whether they are being used.
Pleeze, please Doug...
The first 20 recommends were easy...
So, there is no bubble in hard assets, none what so ever...
This is the type of thing that readers of my blog would already know and expect.
Imperial Metals just reported their year end report. You need to go to their web site to actually view the report.
First, if you just read their press release, everything looks rosy, the cash flow per share is down a little, from $2.36 to $1.94, simply not enough to raise huge red flags, yet read the press release and it really says little and it most certainly doesn't report on the 4th quarter, the largest indicator of what's happening.
So, I went back and looked at Q3. You've got to ask yourself how does cash flow of $2.17 for the first nine months manage to exceed the year? This isn't worth my time to figure out, but it is a huge red flag. Go to page 7 in that report and "adjusted" net income is $1.34 for the nine month. Check out the annual report and it is $1.00/share.
Net income without adjustment for 2007 is 71c/share compared to $2.75/share in 2006, about 20% of the earnings...
The big well diversified companies have had some sectors decline while others have taken off so this kind of thing isn't as apparent in something like BHP, but BHP showed 1000% growth kind of thing in some sectors and I think that will implode back about 80%... jmho...
I hear you..
All world governments are to blame. ALL GOVERMENTS!!!! AND EACH PERSON IN THE ENTIRE WORLD> THIS MEANS ME.
THIS IS WHERE WE ARE THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING AROUND THE WORLD SANCTION BY ALL GOVERNMENTS THAT INCLUDES ME and will I change? REAL CHANGE ? /param> AND ALL BUT ONE WAS KILLED THE UNITED STATES OF THE WORLD BANK?????? OR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERCIA!!!!!!!! IN GOD( WHO HAS 76 NAMES ) WE TRUST. IS THIS THE END For US? Will the World GOVERNMENTS control or will WE THE PEOPLE? I will do as Mother Theresa,Gandi,Mendella did with peace and my vote.
Here's something important, from Minyanville. I've been of the opinion that shipping will decline, they have tons of ships on order and now growth has come to a stand still.
Well, the second point on Minyanville in about the baltic index. I didn't know what this was. It is an index that reflect shipping price, if I understood what I was reading. You can see that the index has headed down, so prices have already started to weaken...