anticitrade (99.58)

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This pioneer is an earnings beater. (1 year of Exceptional Results)

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March 04, 2010 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: CRTX , MIDD , TRLG

I have long believed that the best opportunities in the market come from the stocks that do not have a close following. Because they are not closely followed they can become irrationally undervalued, and deliver high returns when earnings are released. Because these stocks lack the scrutiny that others may, it is important that your timing is right (otherwise they can sneak up behind you and punch you in the head).

Aspiring pioneers will quickly become frustrated at the sheer volume of stocks they must research in order to find the few pearls. This really is the basis of that anticitrade model, leverage a computer to process a large quantity of stocks to find the rare undervalued gems.

Consequently, earnings announcements are generally a great period for my model. Let me provide some examples of my real money positions where I have seen recent explosive growth in this way:

QCOR - Beat expectations and generated a 43% increase in stock price over the last 5 days.

MIDD - Beat expectations and generated a 11% increase in stock price over the last 5 days.

TRLG - Beat expectations and generated a 26% increase in stock price over the last 10 days.

CRTX - Beat expectations and generated a 12% increase in stock price over the last 5 days.

Now, I don't always win on these plays.

KEQU - Did not meet expectations and lost 8% over the last 10 days.

However, it is easy to see that the lose was not as significant as the wins.

In conclusion: The rewards of being a pioneer are great, but it's not always a trivial task. For help finding these companies I would recommend using my free website: www.anticitrade.com. We now have 1 year of results here on Motley Fool showing us significanlty beating the market with an all long portfolio without "gaming" of the system

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 04, 2010 at 1:24 PM, Option1307 (30.71) wrote:

I have to say I've been rather impressed with your results this past year. Awesome work!

I'm not trying to be picky/rude/annoying/etc., just curious if you have given any thought into how much your recent success is a result of your program vs. the overall market?

Considering the overall market has rallied termendously the last year, do you think this was a larger aspect of your awesome results, or was it truley your automatic investing. Essentially, would your program work and still "beat the market" in a down year?

Again, I'm not knocking you at all and have learned a lot from your results. I'm just interested in your thoughts on this matter. I believe you hope to some day make this a profitable endeavor, and I think this is one thing that you need to show in order to obtain that level of interest.

Now all we need is another bear market for you to prove your system!

Best of luck.

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#2) On March 04, 2010 at 1:45 PM, FleaBagger (98.34) wrote:

Don't forget IPHS! I bought it because I like agriculture-related businesses and it was high on your website's list. I should have doubled down about 4 weeks ago, after it dropped, because since then it's returned >35%. (I'm up since I bought, but not by as much.)

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#3) On March 04, 2010 at 1:56 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

Option1307,

You make a very valid point. Although we have had some down periods over the last year, they probably weren't long enough to simulate a true down market.

I have seen a shift in the relative beta of the recommended stocks from high to low as the market has approached what may be considered "overvalued". This phenomenon has provided me some reason to believe that this model will naturally move you into an optimal portfolio for the relative value of the market.

I have made some effort to simulate various markets but I do not believe my data source quality is sufficient to do a fair evaluation (timing the release of financial statements for 4,000 companies so that the model fairly represents the information available at the time is not a trivial task).

In the end it may take an actual bear market to provide the additional support of the long term viability of the system.

Thanks for the feedback.

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#4) On March 04, 2010 at 1:58 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I hadnt noticed IPHS... I am in that one too with real money.

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#5) On March 04, 2010 at 2:05 PM, Dobbes (< 20) wrote:

A correlation test between system returns and an index should solve that.

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#6) On March 04, 2010 at 2:06 PM, Option1307 (30.71) wrote:

I have seen a shift in the relative beta of the recommended stocks from high to low as the market has approached what may be considered "overvalued".

This is definitely a positive sign that your model will work in all environments. You may really have found the holy grail of investing!

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#7) On March 04, 2010 at 2:09 PM, Portis403 (< 20) wrote: