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Varchild2008 (84.26)

This Stock Market Rally is FAKE: Sorry folks

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July 24, 2009 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR , BAC , UNH

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5% more laying people off than hiring.   The biggest gap in quite sometime.
Consumer Spending has taken a massive -16 dollars on the 3 day average.  That's gigantic!

The rally is false!   the rally is false!  this rally is false!  Even Varchild was moved by it to declare himself strongly bullish.

But, I am not declaring myself  Strongly Bearish!

Alstry's 9.09  Stock Market Collapse is not off the table folks!   Not by any stretch.

The following are a massive set of economic headwinds that the EUPHORIC Media is refusing to report:

1)  There is STILL a global slowdown.  No one is claiming anything concerning Growth except perhaps some parts of Asia.... Maybe India...Korea..China....Maybe....  But even then the growth is a meager 3% or less.    Everywhere else is absolutely still slowing down.

2)  Today the Minimum Wage just went up.  What does this mean?   Hotels, Barber Shops, Dry Cleaners, Laundry Mats, Motels, and a whole host of other small businesses that can not afford to pay $7.25 an hour will start slashing HOURS and perhaps WORKERS over this.

3)  Airlines have slashed THOUSANDS of jobs this past week.   Of which none of that has yet to be fatored into any unemployment benefit roll numbers.

4)  States are starting to be unable to pay out Unemployment Benefits...  When that money dries out VIOLENCE and CRIME will escalate beyond belief.  Already in Michigan people have been going around stealing Tires off of Vehicles in Metro Detroit just to get some money.

5) If HEALTH CARE or CAP AND TAX pass and become law....  Unemployment will skyrocket perhaps DOUBLING within 1 year of passage.

I just heard a Radio Commercial today that started off saying, "In Today's Recovering Economy..."

What the heck????  What kind of junk is this????  WE ARE MOST CERTAINLY not out of the woods by far.

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 24, 2009 at 9:43 PM, Varchild2008 (84.26) wrote:

Frustrating!!  I typoed.... I meant to say that Varchild is NOW declaring himself Strongly Bearish.

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#2) On July 24, 2009 at 10:10 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

Couldn't agree more!

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#3) On July 24, 2009 at 10:35 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.77) wrote:

Why not save up some cash to buy on the pullback.

Or are you predicting The end of the world as we know it?

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#4) On July 24, 2009 at 10:47 PM, selfdestruct2 (57.21) wrote:

Should I sell everything soon and wait for the pullback ? I'm freakin confused.

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#5) On July 24, 2009 at 10:49 PM, selfdestruct2 (57.21) wrote:

Buffet would just weather the storm ( If the market drops again)

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#6) On July 25, 2009 at 12:05 AM, edgebander (98.54) wrote:

Listen while it may suck in the future, timing is unfortunately everything and while I agree that this is all fake I just think that you may as well hedge against the massive inflation that will becoming to a city near you.  The G-20 have built their nations on the citizens back with their citizens wallets and have printed a whole lot of money to get us out of this.  The reality is that they have postponed it by a couple of years.  The money that has been printed could run the global economies without any output from the citizens.  The rally will in fact last for the next year or even longer but be prepared because there is nothing left in the coffers for the next recession.  They spent there way out of a real and natural correction for the last time.  As you said there are some states that will be defaulting but probably will not but I know that they will not be able to build up their war chests to defend against the next recession which will be a depression.  Things need to correct naturally the problem with the government is that they refuse to allow it to happen because everyone wants a brand new ipod.  Wake Up America

 

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#7) On July 25, 2009 at 1:49 AM, amassafortune (29.98) wrote:

If Microsoft had beaten by a penny, the S&P probably would have cleared 1,000 today.

I agree the market is ahead of itself, but the consensus is that the S&P will reach 1,100 before 2009 ends. That's a 12% return from today's close. Even though the economy is still shrinking, and P/E ratios do not justify current stock prices, and earnings are overstated due to TARP infusions and mark to market magic money, the 12% possible return beats 2% in a CD. 

I missed out on much of the dot com froth because I knew it was a bubble and companies with non-existant earnings could not continue to double every few months. Bad move. Now I ride the market hard and put it up wet. The trend is still your friend, even when the greater fool is the only reason it keeps rising. As long as you know the market will turn soon, today's electronic stops make it easy to automate a quick and profitable exit.

A side note on the minimum wage. Ohio's state minimum has been $7.30 for awhile, except for 14 and 15-yr-olds, so for the #7 state by population, the law will have almost no effect. 13 states already had minimum wage rates above $6.55 before the move to $7.25 today.

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#8) On July 25, 2009 at 9:50 AM, spanishedgefund (< 20) wrote:

An advice for all US investors, market going to crash very soon, get out of stocks now!! y mean now, no kidding folks!!

Get out of US bank accounts too, open a foreign account as soon as possible, invest in gold or buy foreing currency, DOLAR TO COLLAPSE IN A FEW MONTHS!!!!

IF YOU HAVE FEW BUCKS TO INVEST, open a forex account, you can get 1/200 leverage in foreign exchange, bet for the dollar to collapse and wait on your couch, more easy than stocks.

 

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#9) On July 25, 2009 at 12:21 PM, kaskoosek (97.84) wrote:

Are we predicting the short term future again?

 

Everyone knows the US economy is shitty.

 

The question is, do you want to stay in cash???? 

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#10) On July 25, 2009 at 12:40 PM, Varchild2008 (84.26) wrote:

@msftgev,

If I was predicting "End of World" I would be all RED THUMB in my CAPS.   As long as you see GREEN THUMBs....Varchild is still Optimistic on the "long term" prospects for America.

My concerns right now are short term.....based on massive headwinds... Even the advocates and supporters of Cap and Trade and President Obama's Healthcare plan do not have any idea what impact it will have.

But, there is already evidence out there that once this passes a large amount of businesses will immediately dump their Private Insurance plans.   Forcing millions of American Workers onto a new, unproven, Government Controlled program.

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#11) On July 25, 2009 at 2:36 PM, GrizzlyAK (< 20) wrote:

Varchild2008, please get a grip on yourself... take a deep breath. The sky is not falling. The economy is recovering, and this rally is real, although I believe it will cycle down and up as it has been doing, but the general trend will continue. Wise investors just have to be diligent about picking their stocks.

As for Health Care Reform, I recommend the following article from the Canadian Medical Association Journal, which provides some facts and figures comparing their plan with the current US private plan. Regardless of your stance on this, everybody should read this.

http://www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/179/9/916?etoc

I believe that we can't afford the current approach for much longer. I own a small business and my employees don't have health care insurance, because I can't afford to provide it to them. I have no options. How is that good?

 

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#12) On July 26, 2009 at 11:55 AM, Varchild2008 (84.26) wrote:

I lived through 2008 and you want me to take a deep breath?

The rollercoaster ride that was 2008 resulted in me dumping my entire Savings Account straight into the Stock Market.

So, I have every right and reason to be extremely cautious.
Because, at some point in time we will see another 2008.

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#13) On July 26, 2009 at 11:57 AM, Varchild2008 (84.26) wrote:

P.S.  In 2009, I've been in Savings Account re-build mode.  Although I'm still pumping in more cash in the market than I am my savings account.  Not to mention participating in Consumer Spending like you can't possibly believe... Just bought a $700+ Vaccuum Cleaner.

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#14) On July 26, 2009 at 12:37 PM, VegasMartin (< 20) wrote:

The stock market should have a pull back, but I believe it will move higher into 2010.  I don't think it will crash again, but Q3 will be another shake out.  There will be good companies to invest in and bad ones.  If you pick the winners, you'll be in good shape.  If you pick the losers, you'll be hurting.  Not everything will go down.  Not everything will go up.  You just have to do your due diligence and stay away from the companies that don't deserve to be in business any longer or whose business model is no longer viable.

 www.ShootTheBears.com

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#15) On August 26, 2009 at 10:41 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.77) wrote:

Hey, varchild

I agree that at some point in the future(in the year 2000..)

There will be another bubble/recession/depression that is the nature of the beast.

The only reason this did not get even worse was because cap'trade did not pass.

If I could find ways to profit on that piece of bleep, don't you think the big boys at GS who are running the whole show wouldnt've milked the economy dry.

I don't follow Healthcare because that also seems like a rigged market, and I only bet on rigged markets that I can understand.

Good luck to all.

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#16) On August 26, 2009 at 11:16 PM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

The emerging markets are up about 100 %, Europe is showing real life, the Nasdaq has broken it's Secular Bear Resistance line. The S & P will break it at about 1140 (maybe).

Feingold says "no health care bill before Christmas" and "Cap and Trade is Dead". Hopefully he is right but being a Lib Demo he should know. 

Once Bernanke is confirmed he will eventually go back to fighting inflation. Nearly a dozen high profile Dems are losing in the polls. There is real fear based on thier own internal polling. 

The only big negative right now is China and that is a totally manipulated market that is curbing inflation (not a bad problem to prevent). 

Something really crazy could happen but I think the best option is go with the trend until it is clear that the trend has turned. 

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