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Thoughts on Apple

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January 05, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: AAPL

I'm an investor in Apple. My cost basis is around $130, so I was a bit early.

I believe that Apple is a situation where we have a strengthening moat. I believe that there's a huge market for converged devices like the iPhone in the future. Because of premium pricing, it may not be a killer, but Apple could succeed in a similar fashion to the iPod.

Additionally, iPod sales are steady and Mac computers are taking market share. I don't consider innovation alone to constitute a wide moat. However, Apple is on track to becoming a wide moat company thanks to it taking markets share from competitors. In the short term, consumer spending worldwide is a worry, but I think Apple's sales will hold up OK.

 The speculation around Steve Jobs is not relevant in the long term. It will certainly pressure the shares in the short term IF he dies. Additionally, he certainly had a compelling vision for the company. However, Apple's management team has considerable depth now.

I can only wonder if Apple will return any of its cash hoard to investors. There don't seem to be any rivals it can buy and get a reasonable return on the investment.  I would hope for the company to conduct a share buyback or to pay a special or regular dividend at the right time. Either way, I think now is the right time to buy.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 06, 2009 at 2:19 AM, awallejr (83.74) wrote:

Problem is the market still views Apple and Jobs as interchangeable.  I certainly hope there are no serious health issues for the man and that he still has a long life ahead of him, but the stock will react to any nasty rumors.  As a company it is solid financially, but it's future still builds off visions as any tech stock really does.  To paraphrase Bill Gates, a couple guys in a garage always have the potential to sink competitors.

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