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alstry (36.51)

Time is nearing to GO.....

Recs

26

September 15, 2009 – Comments (25)

When much worse is better than expected.....Alstrynomics no longer can serve a purpose.

When increased joblessness is a recovery in a consumer economy...Alstrynomics is irrelevant

When stocks go up on debt downgrades.....Alstrynomics is out of step

When companies refinance low interest rate debt with high interest rate debt and stock goes up......clearly Alstrynomics is simply swimming in the wrong pool

When the rational becomes irrational......and the irrational rational....time for Alstry to go.

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 15, 2009 at 2:34 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

I keep saying it over and over.

 

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#2) On September 15, 2009 at 2:41 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

And trust me, my shorts are getting crushed.

But i'm staying the course.

I'm up for the year 50%, I can afford to play with the houses money a bit.  so far about 10% down for my shorts.

 

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#3) On September 15, 2009 at 2:48 PM, blake303 (29.38) wrote:

Adios

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#4) On September 15, 2009 at 2:50 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

+rec

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#5) On September 15, 2009 at 2:52 PM, greenvillewolf (42.69) wrote:

Don't let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya!

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#6) On September 15, 2009 at 2:57 PM, carcassgrinder (48.98) wrote:

Ignorance is the new intellect.  This is what we've evolved into in this "made for t.v." America.  We are not what we are...but what we say we are....or what we wish to believe we are.  We have spent the last 30 years thriving off of the integrity that previous generations endowed us with.....and we've pissed it away.

Can we get it back?  Probably...but no amount of voting or talking will achieve this.  Someone needs to hit the rest switch....and rebooting can be a M&*%F&*ker. 

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#7) On September 15, 2009 at 2:57 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Don't give up spreading the truth about the situation.

It's grim, real grim.

I'm not looking for a collapse, just a good sizable correction on the order of 10-20%.

It's all a guessing game, but keep the blogs going.  It may annoy most, but at least you're spreading the word about how bad it can get very quickly.

It's not all balloons and party favors yet.

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#8) On September 15, 2009 at 2:58 PM, carcassgrinder (48.98) wrote:

*"reset switch"

 

...although a "rest switch" might be nice too!!! 

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#9) On September 15, 2009 at 3:04 PM, alstry (36.51) wrote:

jas,

This is far more than just the market...it is government, the press, the banks, the economists, the analysts......

when worse is better, the better we get the worse off we are...eventually we are dead.

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#10) On September 15, 2009 at 3:11 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

It's a jobless recovery, didn't you know?  Who knew?

 

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#11) On September 15, 2009 at 3:23 PM, FSUSully (87.56) wrote:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html

This article is right up your alley.  For a possible future blog post.

FSUSully

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#12) On September 15, 2009 at 3:24 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

Aw, cheer up. it's not over yet. You still have 16 days for your "Sage Visions" to occur.  I mean, the sky could fall, WW3 could start, total collapse of our "Ponzi" economy, pandemics, social unrest, Martial Law could be imposed, tax on assets, 100% tax on  income could happen AT ANY TIME NOW!!!!!! Alot can happen in 16 days--- but who's counting?????????

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#13) On September 15, 2009 at 3:24 PM, DOW4000 (< 20) wrote:

"When the rational becomes irrational......and the irrational rational....time for Alstry to go."

 A lesson in the fact that markets cannot be timed. Alstry, u will eventually be proven right...just not yet. And when u are, PLEAZE come back and say, "I told you so!" But for now, u deserve to be made ane example of that timing the markets is a good way to lose money... this MUST be taught to any out there that believe the markets can consistenly be timed and profitable these days. Some do get ucky, but mostly that's all it is. Ain't your daddy's stock market anymore. Go free Alstry.... your day will come, and you will surely be prepared.

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#14) On September 15, 2009 at 3:31 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Maryland is not the only one

 

State deficits still growing

http://bulletin.aarp.org/states/md/2009/28/articles/state_deficits_still_growing.html

Layoffs and scaling down mandated spending will likely have to be part of corrective action, he said.

"Whatever we do has to result in a sustainable framework," Deschenaux said.

As currently projected, the $700 million shortfall in fiscal 2010 will migrate to $1 billion in fiscal 2011 and $2 billion in fiscal 2012 once federal stimulus money dries up. That's about 15 percent of Maryland's general fund.

Behind the latest revisions are numerous income tax refunds, smaller withholding because of the poor job market, and faltering capital gains collections, Deschenaux said.

By now this is a familiar situation for Gov. Martin O'Malley, who has been dealing with debilitating financial problems since taking office. A general cycle has developed in which O'Malley and the Board of Public Works finalize reductions, get worse news a few months later, and then have to go back for more reductions.

 

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#15) On September 15, 2009 at 3:34 PM, alstry (36.51) wrote:

jas....welcome to 9.09 where worse is better...that is MOAP;)

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#16) On September 15, 2009 at 3:46 PM, jstegma (29.53) wrote:

But like you've said for a long time Alstry, you are not a pessimist.  This is nothing that can't be solved with some grape flavoraid and a little cyanide.  :)

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#17) On September 15, 2009 at 3:51 PM, crystlz (63.91) wrote:

Yesterday I went over to one of my clients house to discuss creating a home office and the gentleman was in bed and couldn't talk. Today I noticed the headline that several branches of Village Bank in SW MO are being closed. My client's family has a big interest in these banks. BTW at least one of the branches had just been completed in Ozark, MO. I guess this is somehow a sign of the recovery taking hold.

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#18) On September 15, 2009 at 4:00 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

No, its one of those, "its gotta get worse before it gets better."

Expect a lot more banks, a lot more businesses to close.  It doesn't matter now, because the gov't is holding up a sinking ship, hoping and praying the private sector is bought enough time to get it right.

If the 2 trillion dollars does this, I'll be amazed.  So far, not so much.  It's buying time, that's all.  

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#19) On September 15, 2009 at 4:14 PM, crystlz (63.91) wrote:

There is a lot of new, vacant commercial real estate available locallly.  A lot of it is priced well under replacement cost. The county where I live went through a building boom and now it's incredible how much retail and office space is vacant. The real estate may be more of a bargain than stocks.

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#20) On September 15, 2009 at 4:46 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, it's one thing to be the ultimate realist.  It's another to blast the Fools here with your rhetoric.

I was under the impression that the Motley Fool was mostly a community of investors helping investors achieve above-average gains on their money.

Under Alstrynomics, you have set up your own little rant, complete with Alstry-size soap box, and incessantly bullhorned the message about how bad things have been, are and will be shortly.  Since your don't focus on providing insights to help me increase my gains or at least preserve my capital, I have to assume that it's just always been the inferred by your message to go short because the market is ripe to fall hard, or to go all into gold to preserve your capital.

Prognosticating can be a tricky business, as you are finding out.

So now that your time is running short here, are you really going to disappear when October appears, or are you going to string everyone along?  I mean, after all, just because your predictions don't unfold in the time frame you predicted doesn't mean that sometime in the future they won't...right?

Just egging you on Alstry.  You actually provide some good information in relation to general finance and economics.  A little over the top with the exclamation points, often times very repetitive, and you don't show much interest in investing, so the Fool doesn't seem to be your venue.

I'd like to suggest that you start your own website or blog - www.alstrynomics.comwww.zombulator.com or www.zombulation.com.  I own those domain, so if you'd like to buy them, just let me know.  Unfortunately www.MOAP.com was already taken.

You're more of a news guy - not so much an investing guy.  See if you can work with any of a number of radio/tv hosts that could use your type of news in part of their shows.  Your efforts at the Fool definitely haven't gone ignored.

...and besides...we know you just can't resist the siren call of the Fool blogs.  If you don't come back as Alstry, maybe you will as someone else.

Fool on!

P.S.  I don't really own those web domains, but you might want to visit www.godaddy.com and scoop them up before someone else does.  They may be valuable.

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#21) On September 15, 2009 at 5:33 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I like his blogs to be honest, I like how he puts the news up, and puts his spin. Does it mean you have to agree?  nope...but its still fun, and I have actually learned quite a bit.

 

Keep on blogging alstry. I'll keep reading :)

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#22) On September 15, 2009 at 5:40 PM, PIGMA (28.00) wrote:

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

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#23) On September 15, 2009 at 11:44 PM, fmahnke (88.61) wrote:

It is the MOAP.  Fed gives banks, free money and banks invest.  How else can you explain T-Bill prices..  Better to just stay neutral until the you see the levvee break.

Its hard to win a rigged game. and implossible to tell how long the can keep the presses printing

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#24) On September 16, 2009 at 2:27 AM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

Die USD Die

 May it become worth less than toilet paper.

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#25) On September 20, 2009 at 12:20 PM, Teacherman1 (27.59) wrote:

Things are tough in Austin, Tx too. In the new city budget, the city employees didn't get pay raises. They do get to keep their jobs (no layoffs), and they still found money to keep the annual "longevity pay" in place.

This was not because the economy has been unaffected. Sales tax receipts are down, there was a slight increase in realestate taxes (about $9.00 a month on the average house), but by making choices about where money was to be spent and not living beyond our means in the past. 

Maybe some of the problems some state and local governments are having were self created. 

Social Liberalism can be a good thing, but only if it is tied to fiscal conservatism.

Somewhere along the line we got things mixed up. Instead of looking at how much money is available, and then making choices of where and how it is to be spent, we have become a nation of "good ideas" coupled with "what can we tax to get the money".

If our various governmental enities could adopt an attitude of living within their means, we could provide more needed help to those who really need it, and not have a situation of where we try to provide all things, to all people, all of the time, and then throw in another set of Govt programs to mismanage them at an exhorbitantly high cost; thus wasting most of the money meant to help those truly in need.

You have provided some much needed "cold water" in your posts (but too often overdoing it to truly be effective). I read them with interest, but with a long lifetime of having seen many things come and go.

Balance in all things is the "watchword" I try to live by, though not always successfully. 

JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it. 

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