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Time to become a student again... year 2 of Checklists investing career



January 03, 2010 – Comments (25)

I am sitting in my old bedroom at my parents house, with my son sleeping in my old bed and myself sleeping in my brothers old bed. Or, rather, not sleeping but reading CAPs blogs. This is exactly what I was doing last year, except I was running stock screens, downloading S&P research reports, and reading articles at Motley Fool. 

Before one year ago today, and the 10 days or so preceding one  year ago today (i'd taken my first vacation in 10 years to come home, avoid big hangovers at new years eve parties, and research stocks, as I'd lost all hope in professional investors ability / willingness to take advantage of the big crash)...  anyway, before 1 year ago the only stock research i'd done was reading David Dremans: contrarian investment strategies, the next generation. 

But I knew an opportunity was at hand with the epic crash.  I looked at how cheap stocks had gotten on Nov 20, 2008, and felt a twinge of pain that I wasn't paying attention that day to buy any.  Alot of my first picks like OSK and MTW and stuff had gotten SO CHEAP on Nov 20 that they were already multibaggers at times.  Wild. 

With alot of stumbling and bumbling, a series of rookie mistakes, I did ultimately succeed in doing at least a decent job of siezing the opportunity of the crash.  My best moment was this and this, around the time of those blogs I put my money where my mouth was with huge bets on insurance, BDCs, and banks.  Anybody who would have listened would have made a large multiple on basically any stock mentioned or in those sectors, so long as it was out of favor.  Begging pardon for any immodesty, I think it was the best call I've read from the March low period anywhere.

So, yay, happy days, mission accomplished (although dammit i could have done better).  Here are my regrets:

1.  I wish i would have focused more on dividend stocks.  No worries about temporarily cut divi's like HIGs or whatever, but why did I buy Casino stocks that aren't likely to pay significant divi's for years?   If I could go back i'd buy all stocks I meant to hold for 5 years.  None just because they were super cheap and bound to rebound hugely.  I don't wanna pay taxes, I wanna hold. 

2.  I blew it in the BDC space.  I made my biggest bet on ACAS, which turned out to be the biggest bomb.  It was market timing only that has me way up on ACAS (with vast majority of shares sold), I got it wrong.

I did well, but I could have done so much better.  That was a once in a lifetime panic.  Always healthy to look back on our actions with a critical eye, even if Tony Robbins wouldn't approve and even if it isn't comfortable. 

But here I am a year later...  and things are so different than a year ago.  A year ago, through 10 months ago, the right move was to buy out of favor stocks.  Really out of favor stocks.  Bet against the insane bearishness of that era, bet in favor of a return to the normal.  Did I win (~250% returns) by being really smart, or just by being brave enough to pretty much go all in against the tide?  Could have thrown darts at mega out of favor stocks and done about as well probably. 

But, anyway, a year later things are so different, and I feel like a novice again.  How does one pick stocks in the absence of severe, violently cheap choices?  Much harder.  Much harder.  And if, in early March, I felt like I was the only guy in the world who got the joke (my blogs linked to above), today I feel a bit like the joke is on me.  My investing work is currently suffering from a variety of things including

1.  I spend at least 80% of my time reviewing holdings I have, 10% posting on CAPs, and 10% looking at new stocks.  That was 80% new stocks, 10% caps, 10% reading "how to" articles about things like current ratio and stuff a year ago.  I'm stuck in a holding pattern, at least for a few months here until I clear a year on this and that.  Should actually clear a year on many shares this coming week...  I am unloading a few names!

2.  I suspect that my very-simplifying manner of looking at things last jan-march is no longer the best approach, and a more in depth, methodical manner of stock picking is in order.  I will offer some examples:

-XL Capital.  My investment thesis was:  A)  insane valuation (something like 0.1 of book and forward p/e of 2 a year ago) B) negative enterprise value by billions  C) billions of cash  D) stifel has a buy rating so at least one guy thinks they'll live.  Good enough, made it my 2nd biggest position at hte bottom.

-TCK, Teck Resources.  Thesis was:  A)  debt is bad but they got a 100 year resource  B) they can cash flow the entire debtload in maybe 5-6 years C) someone will work with them in light of B.  So it became one of my 10 biggest positions

-ASH, Ashland Chemical.  Thesis was:  A) not violating covenants, B) 1/2 the price of the lowest its ever been and that was 1984 so C) yes.  biggest position at the bottom

Etc.  That was about all the more in depth my picking was.  10-20 hours per pick absolutely tops.  I think today, with the S&P at 1100, that type of very simplified outlook is no longer appropriate and much more in depth reserach is prudent.  Last February, that type of simplying was essential.  Time was of the essence as the crash would only last so long, and if one sat down and looked deeply at this or that you could have found someting negative about all of those.  But today I think any stock that falls into the "mega cheap" category is much more likely to be actually troubled.

So, my fine fellow fools, I must begin anew, as a rookie once more.  Even if i did beat every hedge fund on earth in 2009, I think that as of today my best interests are best served by re-assigning myself rookie status and starting over.  So...  how do we pick stocks in the absence of vicious bargains?  When just stepping in front of the crashing freight train won't ensure multi-baggers? 

Should be fun learning. 

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 03, 2010 at 2:45 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

And a couple side notes:  i am attempting to grow some hair after years of having a shaved head.  Its going ok, but, ahem, the hair isn't exactly in a state of over-supply on the top of my head.  lol.  And I look like a weird fuzzball as its all about 3/8" long and sticking straight out everywhere. 

And I got my first smartpone, a motorola droid.  And it is awesome.  Absolutely stunning what capabilities a machine so cheap and so small has.  But it won't post on Caps :(

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#2) On January 03, 2010 at 5:52 AM, qron26 (< 20) wrote:

What is your current opinion on ACAS? I might be late to the game but what do you think of this as an investment now?

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#3) On January 03, 2010 at 6:42 AM, truthisntstupid (79.96) wrote:

Hi checklist

Do you really wish you'd bought more dividend stocks?  If so, you might like The Ultimate Dividend Playbook by Josh Peters.   It may help a lot in figuring out what to buy now.  I'm finding it's one of those books that can't just be read.   If you're like me you may start out reading it, get about to page 70, then grab a notebook and start over.   This is a book with a lot of info I really want to remember.  Josh Peters writes the monthly newsletter DividendInvestor for Morningstar.

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#4) On January 03, 2010 at 8:43 AM, hrc777 (< 20) wrote:

You seem to have a touch of humility and a thirst to learn.  You'll do just fine.  I'll keep tabs. hrc

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#5) On January 03, 2010 at 10:15 AM, rofgile (99.24) wrote:

Hi checklist,

 First of all Happy New Year!   I've been bringing in my New Year by catching up on technology (namely what the heck does Google offer, etc for gaining information).  I've got Google fever lately.

 Anyways, I've added your blog as an RSS feed in  - Its pretty great.  Now I'm getting my best CAPS blogs, and skipping being annoyed by the plain wrong ones.

 In the last 1-2 months my investing has become difficult like you are saying.  I'm taking a much longer view of things now, and trying to just understand what businesses will be able to grow in the future.  

 I'm still holding many of my major positions, and expect to for a while.  MTW, VOD, GILD - these were my first positions as a new investor, and I still think they are all good investments now.  My newer positions I've been adding this last year are in solar, wind, and dry shipping.  The renewable energy sector has been knocked down quite a bit from 2008 prices due to lack of investment in projects by governments (due to the economic crisis), uncertainty about tax laws in the US (due to lack of effort from congress), and fluctuating commodity prices / energy prices.  This is one sector that will improve if we just keep stable.  I think many of the companies in this sector could be good investments in the 2010.



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#6) On January 03, 2010 at 11:48 AM, ozzfan1317 (72.13) wrote:

I know the feeling wish I had looked a more small caps during the crash but was still learning myself I made about 40% on BP, 25% On KO, and 90% On DAR so I had a decent year and have made back most of my losses from Siri.

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#7) On January 03, 2010 at 1:15 PM, Teacherman1 (< 20) wrote:

checklist - will be interesting to see your new picks (if and when you start making any).

You have obviously done very well with the ones you made, so just throwing this out for consideration for where you might find investing ideas for this year.

Cyclicals such as shipping, Dry, Container, Tankers, . There are some good ones near their lows, and some that are not as good as they might first appear. You might want to look at the TK companies. They have several partnerships that are paying good dividends, even in this pull back in rates.

I have owned DSX, but after looking at it closer, as well as at Frontline, I am not sure of how much growth these two really have. They are older, larger, and have better fundamentals then most, but they also don't have nearly as much upside as some of the others. Good companies, and great for conservative investing, but limited growth.

You also might want to look at banks. The "really big" ones, as well as the regionals have problems on their books, but this is what makes them a buying opportunity. I think it is pretty safe to say by now, that they are not going under. It may take time for them to pay off, but I believe they will pay off big, when they do.

I am also looking at Techs for 2010. The problem now is that most are too high to show the kind of growth I am looking for, so I am watching and waiting for a good entry point. Also, many of the more mature Techs don't pay dividends, which I don't like. I like to be paid to hold and wait for slower growth.

The Telco sector is also one I am watching for 2010. I am not interested in the more mature ones like Verizon, AT&T, APPLE, etc., because once again, they just don't have the future growth I am looking for. They are good companies, most pay some dividend, but not enough "bang for the buck".

I made a relatively small purchase of ALU last week, but it is still probably early for them. Am also watching CLEARWIRE. There are also several foreign Teleco's paying good dividends and still have room for good growth, but don't know your appetite for non US companies.

There are also some good Chinese stocks (though not as many as a lot seem to think), but because I am concerned that the Chinese Govt. has no reservation about adding or withdrawing support almost at will, I look to them as more of an intermittent trading opportunity than a longer term investment.

Well, I guess I have written a long enough (short book), so I will just end it here. 

You made good choices in the past, so I expect you will make good ones in the future. Just take the time to do your research, then take a chance.

If I like a stock, I usually start off with about 25% of what I expect my eventual position to be. I then wait, watch, and adjust.

All of the above is JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

Good luck in 2010 and beyond.

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#8) On January 03, 2010 at 2:33 PM, anchak (99.90) wrote:

And that is the reason I like you more and more!

I and a lot of us were with you - during the March timeframe - but most as a trade.....big mistake obviously.

Checklist - it was luck/good karma - but mostly it was hard work and conviction in your part.

Incidentally.....Since you refer to your wonderfully gifted and smart advisor ( its a god given gift that's all really - I am sure there are others around in CAPS also) - but high IQ doesn't necessarily translate into investing prowess.

I did not see this coming other than the 666 - bottom - which I thought was a trading one. The reason cuts both ways

(a) I tried the knife catching thing late-Oct to Nov and S&P hit 741. I simply did this devoid of real-fundamentals - meaning like what was happening in the industry

(b) Nov and Dec delinquency numbers from 2008 were some of the worst deteriorations - I have seen. And the market rallied into Jan

(c) Wasn't too difficult to see the obvious

(d) But numbers kept improving right thru - Jan,Feb,Mar. Foreclosure moratorium was in place ( Lot of people I see here make comments on the Govt intervention - all this euphoria and confidence we see - is a lot due to that "little intervention experiment" as I call it in supply-demand. The govt is intent on keeping supply out. Period)

(e) Now we are back to where we were in Q3,2008 and things are stable.

Hence the conundrum is bigger - I am with you about the market being properly valued. However - clearly the market is/can be etxremely irrational both ways.

Coming back

(a) I think your investments in farm land, community, business should come first. They'll yield you rich dividends IMHO

(b) I think look at technology. The worlds better connected - most international companies - now throw a multi-talented global team at ANY problem. Let me repeat it - ANY problem. My feeling is we will see some clear breakthrus in the near future.

Also this is a counter-balance to financial proliferation. Most people associated with the crisis would think hard about deploying risk-capital. I think internationally - especially China - there's still cheap credit - but it would not be overabundant. What we are seeing right now - are more rewriting of covenants and accomodating existing lines. Incremental flows - possibly should go to zero/near zero debtors - and thats most in the technical fields ( bio, soft, hard - whatever is your fancy)

 (c) Drieman's was a statistical outlier - to mean revert hypothesis. Since you like ( I do too) - I suggest prowling the MI ( Mechnical Investing)  board here at the fool. Especially focus on the market climate testers these guys research - and some of the MI Screening Criteria - like Sector rotations , Yield Plays ( There's a strategy called YieldEarnYear - look it up), PEG plays. They provided loads of backtesting data - so it should help you structure your thinking.

 (d) Also do not delve too much - about able to be catching the Multi-Year holds right at the bottom. Search and Optimize doesn't work that way. On a local basis - the non-global optimums ( anything that was beaten in your terminology - or s&*t floats in mine) - have better local maximas. Its only in the 2nd round ( that's why I was so much looking for the correction - anyway my saving grace this year was the Wave 3 call at 905 - in July - and longing 401k - index funds - but what the heck!) - some of the cloud is hopefully going to clear.

Also I think there's going to be a quagmire most of this year. And anything that separates from that - hopefully are the long term holds!

All the best!





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#9) On January 04, 2010 at 2:22 AM, uclayoda87 (28.53) wrote:


If we have a W shaped recovery, you may be able to do even better than you did last year.  If you are uncertain about what to invest in now, it might be best to take some profits and hide out in cash, while the US dollar index is still strong.  I suspect that the markets will go up for the first couple of weeks in 2010 as mutual funds reinvest, but after that who knows.  I have been raising cash for the last two month waiting for a better buying opportunity, believing that we in the eye of the hurricane.  I have more than made up for my losses in 2008, so I don't feel the need to be too greedy at this time.  If the markets continue to climb in 2010, then my stock porfolio will grow at a lower rate due to my cash position, but if the W does come to pass, that cash position will allow me to relive my glory days in Nov/Dec 2008, when I went all in on FCX.

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#10) On January 04, 2010 at 2:54 AM, Tastylunch (28.56) wrote:

sounds like a good plan checklist. I think you've played exactly right. No point in worrying about missed opportunities.

Usually year 2 of any rally is time for large cap outperfromance, tame action. Good time to focus on large caps or dividends.

I'd also suggest you learn about (if you haven't already)momentum. Once I learned how momen worked it has allowed me to benefit from a lot of the irrationality one sees in the market all the time. Unlike this past year where mean reversion was unusually powerful, Momentum is always there to some degree.It's something you can use every year.

When you find a low float fast grower, it's pretty fun. especially if the VIX is  high :)

PS why are you growing back you hair?

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#11) On January 04, 2010 at 3:40 AM, Tastylunch (28.56) wrote:

also wanted to add

of course I totally agree with AC as usual

anyway checlist here's a post from the Mechanical investing baord I found particularly enlightening that is useful for this next year

....As you can see, the out-performance for Large Caps is primarily due to the 2nd and 4th years of the cycle, while year 1 and 3 actually see better performance for the Small Caps, albeit minor.

We are now in the end of year 1 -- so the top part of the table which shows that Small Caps have historically beaten Large Caps. From January 1st to the end of February Small Caps also out-perform in year two. After that there is no question that traditionally it has been best to hold Large Caps in year two. The returns are not great, but they beat out Small Caps.

 Zeelotes is a very smart fellow, wish He played CAPS.

 in any event I interrpret that to mean. Pick dividend companies with stable business with good cash flows. I've been buying some utilities last couple months....

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#12) On January 04, 2010 at 1:52 PM, anchak (99.90) wrote:

Second tasty here..Zeelotes and mungofitch ( Jim) are A1***

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#13) On January 04, 2010 at 2:58 PM, Tastylunch (28.56) wrote:

checklist buddy

don't know if you know this but, you need one more active pick to keep your rating.

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#14) On January 15, 2010 at 7:10 PM, mfirish (< 20) wrote:

I agree with what has been said about you gaining humility and a desire to look within. I believe all things must begin with self evaulation. I am sad because you sound sad. I have found sometimes when you reach goals or even surpass them that a real let down follows. You have had great succes but you have experienced that life doesn't change that much. I have been relatively rich and quite poor and when I stand back and look at both situations there is isn't that much difference. Like all of us you were hoping it would be different.

I have followed you and made some picks because of you and have profited from those picks. I very much enjoy your candor and wish you good fortune on this journey. 

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#15) On February 02, 2010 at 12:28 PM, kirkydu (90.77) wrote:

feel ya man

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#16) On February 02, 2010 at 4:05 PM, FleaBagger (27.50) wrote:

What do you think of RJET? Any change in your outlook for it?

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#17) On February 04, 2010 at 12:32 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

gron, I am not a buyer of ACAS here.  That thing is a circus with shady management and it was timing and timing alone that left me making gobs of money on it.  I found it 1 week before the march bottom and did all my buying under $1. 

Management has either misrepresented or simply not understood the companies situation for the entirety of 2009.  I don't want to be involved, thats how I feel. 

The valuation is still potentially deep if they resolve the default at ECAS, but I'm done with it.  

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#18) On February 04, 2010 at 12:34 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

hey truthisnt, I like dividends, I have no love for stock buybacks.  I don't think that wall street actually rewards companies for buybacks as I think they focus more on the year over year revenue growth or total earnings growth rather than EPS growth.  Buybacks = waste of company and shareholder money, dividends = money.

thanks hrc777

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#19) On February 04, 2010 at 12:36 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

thanks alot, Rof, I really appreciate it!

ozz, we all did things imperfectly in this monster crash, nobody, and i mean nobody, got it exactly right.  Unless they are a deluded narcissist and believe they did (but they still actually didn't).  The important thing is that you were long in the crash, which lets you profit coming out of it.  That and that alone was enough to beat most of the pro's on wall street.  


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#20) On February 04, 2010 at 12:42 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

teacher, thanks and I agree on banks.  I think right now and into the short term future some of the very best buying opportunities will be in banks.  BAC, maybe LYG but i know little about it, and small and microcap regionals.  Some really good valuations in tiny cap banks right now, just a question of sifting through them and finding the ones that aren't going to implode.  So far I blew it on BOFL...  sucks. 

good god, I just looked, its now back over $1.  I really blew it on that sucker, ... oh well, I had only a 0.3% position in it, so its not the end of the world.  MTW rmeains my biggest blowing-of-it, so to speak.  Lordie did I blow it on MTW.  Sold 1 day off the bottom, sucks.  Oh well, I bought HIG with the proceeds and thats done better so it sort of worked out.  Bought some more MTW in the $4s later in 2009.

I would love to buy some shippers!  you are right, they are among the stocks that remain very low even after all this upward movement.  I just don't know one stinking thing about htem.  I'm a high beta beaten-down stock kind of guy...  Lets start a thread about those in a couple of days.


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#21) On February 04, 2010 at 1:07 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

anchak that was an awesome post, thanks.  I am slowly re-finding the urge to work in the real world and start a new business.  I can't quite yet ... but i have some ideas.  And i think by summer I will have the energy to try it again.

It takes so much energy to start a small business.  I would like to share a story if its ok with the group.  My cousin is a CPA, and some time ago he was working as an accountant at a bank not too far from here and his job was to evaluate business/commercial loan applications for feasibility.  One was a waterpark/hotel adjoined to the local shopping mall (big, successfull mall).  They determined that the project was viable and then sought investors to put up some equity to collateralize the thing.  He wound up with one of the wealthiest men in his city in his office, gave the presentation along with the developer.  When they were finished the old man said

"son, you gave a very nice presentation, and I don't doubt that this could work.   But, I have learned in my time in business that to start a business, or a project like this, and have it succeed takes two things."

"the first is capital, thats money, and frankly money is pretty easy to come up with, thast the easy part."

"but the second is human capital.  the time, the effort, the care.  Somebody to sit there and sweat over every detail and watch and worry and guide and plan and worry some more.  Someone who is willing to put themselves into the project to make sure that it gets done properly"

"and, son, I have plenty of capital.  In fact, if I lost this much capital it wouldn't matter to me at all.  But i've worked too hard for my capital to invest it frivoulously, and I am too old, too rich, and too damn tired to want to invest the human capital myself, and I'm not sure I trust anybody else to do it.  I want to play catch with my grandkids while I can still raise my arm"

And, thus, he declined.  I heard that story as a 19 year old while in a part of my life where I got drunk 5 nights a week and chased girls 3 times a day and cared about nothing at all.  (girls seem to like that, btw, caring about nothing at all, always bites them in the end).

but despite my young and delinquent age when hearing that story, it has stuck with me as much as anything i've ever heard in my life.  You are all reading a post by a guy in his early/mid 30's who failed with several businesses before winding up with a couple with 100% growth.  Its hard to say which is the greater burden:  failing or wild success.  

The whole experience left me so tired and stressed that I was completely bald 3 years ago.  If anybody wants to come to vegas the first week of march i'll buy any and everybodies fill of booze at the most expensive bar in town...  and you may see that I have a half decent head of hair now.  Stress balding, my doctor told me that it can't actually occur.  Roger Maris and I beg to differ.  If we hadn't sold our businesses when we did I am not honestly sure that I would have had the human capital to even continue running them, much elss take them to the next level.  

I was spent.  I am starting to feel ok again, like maybe I have a little bit more to give life before I cash out.  I like that feeling.  I was an insomniac from age 8ish to 29-30.  2-3 hours a night of sleep for 20 years.   In college I had 2 sets of friends.  The til-midnight friends and the after-midnight til 6am friends.  I sleep 8 or 10 hours ad ay now, still exhausted.  I'm starting to fall asleep less during the day, though, which is cool.  I haven't fallen asleep in an evening on my son in months, which is awesome.  

And I've made far more money on stocks in my life than on those businesses.  One involves pushing some buttons, reading dreman, and making a kings ransom.  One involves all of the effort you can possibly summon in life.  One employs a few dozen people, gainfully at that, one is a zero sum game in which the reason I won is because somebody was foolish enough to lose. My tax rate is the same on either.  And that is the biggest joke in our society today.

I have some good ideas, I hope 2010 finds me the human capital to put htem to work.  :)


back to your post, anchak, I hear you on tech, but I am completely tech ignorant!  it took me 2 days to install halo for my son to play on our PC.  I just got my first smartphone this year!  Its a droid, I beat level 400 on robo defense, and then I quit that game because i was sick of it.  lol

I was wondering if WFR was a good buy the other day....  know anything about those guys?


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#22) On February 04, 2010 at 1:12 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

ucla, all in on FCX in nov/dec was a good move!  congrats.  Bring on the W,...



Tasty, I still sort of see the best opportunities in non blue chip smallish cap stocks.  And still financials.  Financials, and esp insurers, remain farthest below their historical valuations, with BDCs perhaps breathing down their neck for farthest behind historical valuations...  although BDCs made a big move early in the year!

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#23) On February 04, 2010 at 1:16 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

tasty, anchak, I got my one more pick today.  Its a half-assed pick, FTR, i'm not really that keen on it, but I do think i'll get a chance to close it for a win. 

I came of age in the stock market judging stocks by how many years, or DECADES, it had been since their PPS was this low.  Alcoa, 25 year.  DOW, 20+ year, ASH all time, XL all time, GNW, all time, etc etc etc etc etc etc etc.  I really do need some time to adjust to stock picking in a normalized environment, so I'm gravitating towards dividends and this complex strategy that I cooked up last spring that I think is good for 20ish percent with basically no risk.


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#24) On February 04, 2010 at 1:28 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

mfirish, the single most profoudnt hing I have ever read ont he CAPs game blogs is this:

"I have found sometimes when you reach goals or even surpass them that a real let down follows."

That is a fact.  When I was failing and racking up debt at a rate that would scare the crap out of any sensible person with my first, oh, 5 attempts at business, I honestly didn't feel that bad.  I had purpose:  to accomplish something, to invent something, to make something work.  I worked 100's of hours a week for a few years on end, and much of my life was horrible (shared apparentment in the owrst part of town with methheads beating each other up next door, cheese and bread for 2.5 meals a day, and so forth).  But I wasn't miserable, I was INTENT. 

It was after our businesses got successful that the pile of pent-up stress hit me.  After we turned profitable, and especially after we paid off the debt and made some real money I wound up almost having a breakdown.  Hair fell out, freaked out, rough time.  

My son said to me the other day

"dad, I think when we were really poor we were pretty happy, we laughed alot, remember (insert memories here).  And we laugh alot now so I think being rich is good, but when you still had (insert my old business here) we never laughed.  you slept alot and really we just never laughed, I didn't like that very much".  Talk about puking your heart out on the sofa... what you own eventually owns you.  someone said that to me once, its profound if you think about it.  


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#25) On February 04, 2010 at 1:29 AM, checklist34 (98.58) wrote:

thanks kirk!

fleabagger:  RJET remains my favorite long position on the market today.  

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