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CMFMikenpdx (90.43)

Time to make Tile Shop a Holding



July 30, 2013 – Comments (1)

this is post is part of my resolution this year to force myself to post about my buys/sells in 2013. mainly for me but feel free to comment. 

i got to this point because i was overconfident in what i thought i could do.  i'm a finance guy by trade, but by taking unnecessary risks and fooling (lower case f) myself that I could outsmart the market,  I got caught up in making short term plays to try and pump up this account so I had more money to build out my longer term holdings.  not Foolish, and i should have known better.  by forcing myself to post what actions I am taking, I will hopefully avoid last years pitfall.

for context, i don't expect to have any new money coming in for another year or more and this is a retirement account so there are no tax consequences for selling.

I purchased a starter position in TTS today at $28.99.  I had meant to buy a couple days ago on the dip to 27-28 but didn't get around to it.  While that is mildly annoying to me, I am trying to be more of the mindset that if all goes well $28 or $38 probably won't matter much 5 years from now let alone a $1 or 2.

The housing market turnaround has got some legs.  It would appear this is not a short term bounce but that we are in the beginning stages of a multi-year recovery in housing.

 I was much quicker to the punch on CAPs with calls on housing than I have been in my portfolio.  I gave TTS a thumbs up back in the teens!  Why didn't a buy then??

*sigh* Hindsight. 

 Housing related plays have done well this past quarter.  I expected that to be true of TTS as well.  They reported net sales today of $58 million today up 26% yoy.  Comparable store sales were up 14.3%.  They are still very small.  Only $1.5B market cap.  They are still mostly a regional player so there is plenty room for them to expand and they plan to do so.  Because of the strength in business they are seeing they have upped their number of planned store openings this year from 17 to 20.

 i like what i have read about the founder so far.  seems to be treating employees well.

 Fwd pe according to Yahoo Finance is 43.69 today.  P/S is 7.55.  I'll be considering adding on a dip and certainly be monitoring future value points.

Other housing plays to consider... LL, TILE, RH, DHI, ELLI, TREX, WSM


1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 31, 2013 at 1:04 PM, jiltin (47.42) wrote:

2008/2009 are gone with bull market for housing. No more housing picks up now. With 401k, I made money with TTS, from 21 to 28 now, sold everything. 

General suggestion, stay away from hosuing market as stocks are always 6 months ahead.

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