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starbucks4ever (98.98)

Time to reduce long exposure

Recs

8

September 16, 2009 – Comments (2)

This will appear to be an unlikely statement after I turned bullish 9.5 months ago, but now is really the time to take some chips off the table. We've been rallying non-stop for the past 2 weeks, and this is already beginning to look like the mirror reflection of the 3 weeks preceding Mar 9. I'm not not saying we'll start correcting tomorrow (although tomorrow looks like a very likely date), but the signs of bear capitulation all around us, and when people capitulate, they usually do so at the worst possible moment. I still think we're going to 14000, but we don't get from here to there along a parabolic line. 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 16, 2009 at 8:22 PM, russiangambit (29.49) wrote:

> I still think we're going to 14000, but we don't get from here to there along a parabolic line. 

You don't say? You get additional 40% so much faster along the parabolic line.

On a more a serious nore, I noticed that for every 0.5% drop in the dollar equities go up about 1.5% lately. So to get your additional 40%, all we need is to dollar to fall by 10-15%. Seems very doable unless it is too sharp and people panic and flee the US assets.

I just read in today's report that July saw record outflow of foreign assets from the US.

 

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#2) On September 16, 2009 at 8:49 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

> I still think we're going to 14000, but we don't get from here to there along a parabolic line.

 

this would be a nice symmetric approach ...



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