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reddingrunner (94.97)

TMFEldrehad: How good?

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May 26, 2007 – Comments (5)

Our fearless leader has had quite a run.  But how much should we depend on his picks? Taking a quick look at his active list as of Memorial Day weekend, his record (not including ended picks) is 96-94 and he's only over 50% because CAPS gives you a win on "underperforms" that don't keep up with the S&P- some of his "shorts" have gone up since he picked them, just not as fast as the market.  His points for these picks (if I added correctly) totals approximately 667 on 190 picks.

OK, it isn't totally fair to ignore ended picks, but then CAPS isn't totally fair either- he admits to gaming the system to a degree to get his score up.

OTOH, since his semi- "retirement" he has been doing quite well.  His active picks since the beginning of February are 14-5 with 444 points: very impressive.  There may be something to be said for being more highly selective with our picks. 

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 26, 2007 at 3:17 PM, DJoshuaRubin (97.99) wrote:

In my opinion, having spoken to Russell, interviewed him, read his thoughts, he is a terrific stock picker.  I look at stock pickers as sort of having - pardon the bad metaphor - mental drills.  Weak ones can go shallow and mine okay information like, "I use their widget."  Mediocre ones can grasp basic knowledge of some key metrics and have an intellgent grasp of business, competition, etc. Advanced can dig into numbers and make sense of business strategy and have a feel for the art.  A-list investors can do it all, and find things 90% of the world misses.  I'm not smart enough to judge the two heavyweights, but in my opnion Russell is not only a CAPS heavyweight champ, he is a deserving one.   

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#2) On May 26, 2007 at 5:32 PM, wcwhiner (95.20) wrote:

Videlicet my "new top ten," which applies time if not risk to the current score measure.  TMFE remains #10, but his score rate is bested by a factor of 2 by the current top performer.

#10, even non-risk-adjusted, is highly impressive.   'Deserving champ' perhaps less so.

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#3) On May 26, 2007 at 8:57 PM, DJoshuaRubin (97.99) wrote:

"Deserving Champ" perhaps less so.  
I stand corrected, O genius master of risk analysis.   

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#4) On May 27, 2007 at 1:19 PM, wcwhiner (95.20) wrote:

Thanks as ever for the kind words.

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#5) On May 29, 2007 at 1:05 PM, reddingrunner (94.97) wrote:

Russell is impressive but it will be interesting to see (if he stays in the game) if he can outperform over the long run.  You can't become a mutual fund mgr unless you are a brilliant stock analyst, but ony a miniscule percent of those are able to outperform over the long run. 

Like many high scorers, Russell picks up a lot of points by calling underperforms on micro stocks.  But he also has a pretty good record on his outperforms.  And we'll see how we all do when the next big correction comes.

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