TMFSinchiruna, you might want to take another peek through those windows...
TMFSinchiruna, remember your post The Clearest Windows Into Weakness from July 28, 2010, in which you told us:
"And then there are the steelmakers. With a reliability all their own, I believe that clear windows into the foundries of a nation's metalsmiths yield more direct insight into the underlying health of an economy than most other vantage points. I believe that sustainable recovery is impossible without the widespread participation of the industrial base, and so I continue to hold vigil outside their window.----
After turning in six consecutive quarterly losses, and after observing a corroborating fall-off in order rates, U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) sees deterioration of its operating performance for the second half. Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD) conveyed caution in its outlook for the second half, and Schnitzer Steel (Nasdaq: SCHN) foresees deteriorating sales volumes meeting tighter profit margins. Nucor (NYSE: NUE) is the voice in the industry that lays the stark reality on the table. Nucor warns of "the possibility of a double-dip recession, or at minimum a significant slowing of growth."
If you want a rosy, upbeat view of the economy, I believe they have windows for that. From where I stand, however, I am sorry to say I see the fires of American industry growing dim once again."
You probably don't remember, but I disagreed. I commented that I'd rather pay attention to what the market's telling us, rather than looking through the foggy windows:"#2) On July 28, 2010 at 4:26 PM, dragonLZ (99.56) wrote:
"It is a wise move to use steel as a gauge of economic health."
I agree, and here is what I see (on 5 best steel plays):
AKS, Price in Feb. 09: $6.18, Today: $13.91 (return +125%)
CAS, Feb. 09: $7.29, Today: $14.84 (+104%)
WOR, Feb. 09: $8.20, Today: $14.25 (+74%)
X, Feb. 09: $19.67, Today: $44.28 (+125%)
GGB, Feb 09: $5.23, Today: $14.69 (+181%)
Two more plays worth mentioning:
STLD (+71%) and SCHN (+61%)
Btw., NUE is a stinker (good for dividends and nothing else)...
I know most people think stocks will (or are supposed to) always go up in a straight line, and as soon as the market start going down they think that's a sure sign the market will "double dip".
Well, let me tell you something: Most people don't make money in the market..."
So, today I thought maybe it would be a good time to take a look at how these steel plays I listed in my comment have performed since your July 28 post:
SCHN, then $46.28, now $$66.18, +43% return
X, then $44.28, now $58.71, +33% return
WOR, then $14.25, now $18.54, +30% return
STLD, then $14.33, now $18.06, +26% return
CAS, then $14.84, now $18.03, +22% return
AKS, then $13.91, now $16.63, +20% return
GGB, then $14.69, now $13.91, -5% return
Well, what do you think? Isn't it time to wash those windows and take another look?