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alstry (< 20)

To My Fairy Fools....All Bets are OFF when the Misery ends



April 23, 2009 – Comments (13)

You know who you are.....those that like to stick their heads in the sand.

I have a little secret for you......NEXT QUARTER IS LIKELY GOING TO BE MUCH WORSE THAN THIS PAST QUARTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From UPS today as reported by Reuters:

The U.S. economic bellwether warned that its second-quarter outlook would likely fall below analysts' expectations and said that while the economic recovery could begin as soon as the end of this year, it would more likely come in 2010.

"The results are miserable, but we expected misery," said Edward Jones analyst Dan Ortwerth. "And all bets are off as to when that misery will end."

We started the quater with a 16.2% U6 unemployment guess is that we will be very close to 20% by quaters end.

There is nothing fun about this.....but Alstry and Alstrynomics has never been one to hide from reality......

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 23, 2009 at 2:41 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

HERE IS A GOOD ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wells Fargo & Co. on Thursday disputed claims that it misrepresented its auction-rate securities to investors. Earlier in the day, California Attorney General Edmund Brown sued Wells Fargo to try to recover $1.5 billion for investors who bought auction-rate securities. Brown alleged that Wells Fargo used "false and deceptive" advice that the securities were "as safe and liquid as cash." In a statement, Wells Fargo Investments Chief Executive Charles Daggs said that "Wells Fargo could not have predicted these extraordinary circumstances, and even with the benefit of hindsight is not responsible for them."


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#2) On April 23, 2009 at 3:11 PM, leo744 (< 20) wrote:

Hey Alstry,

 I'm over here in Asia for the next 13 days and will take some notes for you on what the ordinary citizens of the different countries I layover in have to say about their economies!

I'm just glad North Korea isn't shooting a missle on this trip unlike last time...ugggg!

Don't dispare...prepare..... I always liked that quote!!

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#3) On April 23, 2009 at 3:15 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Keep your wings level and everything else can go vertical.

Thanks for any and all boots on the ground updates.

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#4) On April 23, 2009 at 3:20 PM, leo744 (< 20) wrote:

I'm off to Guam tonight, and then Saipan...I should get a good feeling as both of those locations are huge vacation spots for the Japaneese, Chineese and Russians.

You can find me at the Tree Bar or on the beach for the next couple of days doing my research for you...LOL!!!

Go Twins!

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#5) On April 23, 2009 at 3:52 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Headline from the WSJ:

The Bailout Is a Bargain Despite tea party protests to the contrary, the Wall Street bailout is costing taxpayers much less than feared – so far.


Amazing how stupid the press thinks you guys are....


Is 16.2% of the American workfoce unemployed LESS?

It would be closer to 20% if you counted independent contractors.

Is millions and millions of American homes being foreclosed LESS?

Is the bankrupting of entire American industries and municipalities LESS?

Even Deej will soon learn how supporting zombie banks creates a zombie is just simple math don't have to be very smart to see it.


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#6) On April 23, 2009 at 3:55 PM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:


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#7) On April 23, 2009 at 4:35 PM, ttboydxb (28.55) wrote:

Alstry, I have been reading a lot of your posts lately and I generally agree.  I once read a book called "Blink", it's about how your subconcious, in a blink of an eye, does a better job of deciphering things then your brain does, gut feelings and first impressions are very strong, and it seems to me everyone investing in this rally feels....  uncomfortable???  Like they're hoping it'll be alright.  I try to not group myself into a particular idelogy, but I've sold most of my stuff, because my "Gut" and "Math" are telling me to get out. 


My question to you is this, Now are you investing in instruments  like FAZ?  Curious to know how your investing is affected by your predictions...




P.S. Keep up the blogging, very interesting viewpoint...

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#8) On April 23, 2009 at 4:52 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

We are in very difficult investing times because the rule of law is being emasculated by our government and corporations.

For example, as Ken Denninger raised the issue, how can Henry Paulson force Ken Lewis of Bank America to withhold information from his shareholders about the Merill merger when Lewis' fiduciary obligation is to his shareholders and not Paulson.

In addition, FASB 159 has really distorted most of the reported numbers in the financials.  When the cops become the crooks, defense can be your strongest offense.

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#9) On April 23, 2009 at 5:43 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Alstry gets accused of being a fear monger??????

And there are stories like this from the NYT????

Japan Pays Foreign Workers to Go Home

Rita Yamaoka, a mother of three who immigrated from Brazil, recently lost her factory job here. Now, Japan has made her an offer she might not be able to refuse.

The government will pay thousands of dollars to fly Mrs. Yamaoka; her husband, who is a Brazilian citizen of Japanese descent; and their family back to Brazil. But in exchange, Mrs. Yamaoka and her husband must agree never to seek to work in Japan again.

“I feel immense stress. I’ve been crying very often,” Mrs. Yamaoka, 38, said after a meeting where local officials detailed the offer in this industrial town in central Japan.

“I tell my husband that we should take the money and go back,” she said, her eyes teary. “We can’t afford to stay here much longer.”

Japan’s offer, extended to hundreds of thousands of blue-collar Latin American immigrants, is part of a new drive to encourage them to leave this recession-racked country.

Pretty crazy times indeed........

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#10) On April 24, 2009 at 10:28 AM, kaskoosek (30.20) wrote:

US is bana republic.

Argentina here we come. 



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#11) On April 24, 2009 at 10:33 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


The world is just one big Banana right think any other country is in any better shape.

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#12) On April 24, 2009 at 2:24 PM, OleDrippy (< 20) wrote:

THAT is the problem.. The whole world is a mess.


The Wells Fargo ARS deal is a little late to the party UBS got sued for that MONTHS ago. I wonder if the taxpayer will pay the fine, too? Hmmm.

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#13) On April 28, 2009 at 12:41 PM, OctoStalin (33.79) wrote:

I'm extremely bearish on the economy but I can't understand the hysteria. I mean we're having a deep recession I can't understand why Alstry seems to be shouting everything. By the standards of human history this is a joke, people can't understand how good they have it in modern America.

For lack a better phrase,



Shit happens. 

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