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IBDvalueinvestin (99.66)

Today is just another Trap..

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September 01, 2010 – Comments (20)

After a 3 week bashing on longs, shorts lift the hammer this morning but I don't expect it will be for long before the hammer comes crashing back down on long holders.

The economic data is just getting weaker and weaker. Even prior economic data is being revised lower.

 

First batch of Economic data in Sept. came out at 8:15am today and its not pretty:

08:15  ECONX July ADP Employment Change Revision +37K, prior +42K
08:15  ECONX August ADP Employment Change -10K vs +13K est.

 

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 01, 2010 at 9:06 AM, Dow3000 (< 20) wrote:

ISM what?  Just kidding, I have no idea what it will be.  What I do know is one little uptick matters little with a global depression just months away.

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#2) On September 01, 2010 at 10:03 AM, Momentum21 (94.51) wrote:

How do you like them apples? LOL

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#3) On September 01, 2010 at 10:03 AM, Momentum21 (94.51) wrote:

How do you like them apples? LOL

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#4) On September 01, 2010 at 10:03 AM, Momentum21 (94.51) wrote:

How do you like them apples? LOL

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#5) On September 01, 2010 at 10:03 AM, Momentum21 (94.51) wrote:

How do you like them apples? LOL

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#6) On September 01, 2010 at 10:12 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.66) wrote:

Can't win all the battles in a War can you.

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#7) On September 01, 2010 at 11:02 AM, bigcat1969 (92.24) wrote:

I'm starting to call this the Unexpectedly Depression.  Jobs were unexpectedly down 10k as the housing market unexpectedly plunged yet at least for me the stock market was unexpectedly up today.  Momentun21 unexpectedly asked about apples four times and I unexpectedly don't know how to finish this post.

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#8) On September 01, 2010 at 11:35 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

This market is exactly why I should have gotten out in April like I did (sold everything - shorts and longs), BUT stayed out!

I've since lost 35% of my money.

This is a market you can not invest in, you must trade, and even then, the odds are stacked against you with all these HFTs.   

You can use stop losses but you are powerless after hours and the futures.  Case in point, last night, I upped my short position a bit after making a little.  @ 3:59pm someone(s) pumped the market up 0.5%, and then I watch the futures through the night....up 1%, and I wake up this morning, well...the rest is history.

I sold my shorts in the premarket thankfully, and I'm out of it completely.  I'm just tired of all the swings. Any people think the  bond market is crowded why?

The HFTs can manipulate the market, and they can manipulate interest rates, but in bonds, they can not manipulate your principle like they can in the market.

I've heard the argument that bonds will get crushed in inflation, but that's not now, and if that starts to happen, sell them!  I wish I had gotten in them in April after exiting the stock market completely.  I would be up 15% instead of down 35%.  ugh.

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#9) On September 01, 2010 at 11:41 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.66) wrote:

Jason your not the only one feeling this pain. Plenty of people are losing in a big way. Yes people brag about their winners but they hide their losses due to shame.

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#10) On September 01, 2010 at 11:53 AM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Well I don't care about people on the internet, but my fiance'..that's a different story.  Telling her I'm losing like I am is hard.  I've been on big ups, and now its been 2 months of straight down.  I shorted the market through June-July-Aug, trying to exit on big down days to reenter on technical levels only to get crushed on days like today.

I've tried the diversification of longs/shorts, but where does that take you?  No where.  If you're looking for capital preservation, its either bonds, cash, savings accts/CDs at this point.  I'm no longer in the market, I'm just done with it.  

A friend of my father's has millions in the bank, he has been out of the market since 1999.  He snickers every time someone yells at him for at least having some exposure to the stock market.  After exiting before the .com bubble burst, he say a highly manipulated game being played in the market.  I am learning this very painfully.  Although 35% is only $10,000 to me, that's a lot to a small investor like me.  

oh well.  I have to learn through the hard knocks.  Anyone that I talked to said stay out of it, but I thought I could beat the system. I love challenges, but the market is a casino.  I would have had much more fun in vegas. I will likely not return to the market other than my 401K or the market corrects to my target level of 950-980 on the S&P.  

The fundamentals do not back these levels in the market.  That is my opinion.

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#11) On September 01, 2010 at 9:50 PM, ralphmachio (24.85) wrote:

Jason, I feel your pain, did extremely well April through mid June, but for the last two months, I've been decimated. I just went under 25K for the second time, and I really don't want to dump anymore money into this crap. If any casino I played at was this dirty, I would have never come back a second time. The house has way more of an advantage here, and BULLS and BEARS are just getting played by HFT, and a couple of traders who trade according to reverse psychology, which the machines use to screw us. I might be done, this has cost way more emotionally than cash wise, and I lost a lot. 

There is a certain type of dirty you get from working in the market, and a shower just won't do.  I was better off before I became involved, and the feeling of being ahead is not as satisfactory as losing crushes your spirit. It's not worth it. 

Sitting around waiting for an economy to die is boring anyway, I have to encounter individuals whose opinion makes me want to vomit, and it gets summed up pretty well by saying money is in fact the root of all evil, so I should not be so preoccupied with this childish game anyway. 

If you trust stocks, you trust whoever is manipulating them, and I don't care for those people, and certainly don't trust them. I'm also tired of funding them. I don't in any way wish to be affiliated with them, as they create strife for every other living organism on the planet. Screw this dirty game, and especially the house. 

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#12) On September 01, 2010 at 10:14 PM, BearishKW (< 20) wrote:

Call me naive or an investing infant...but this sounds to me like a lot of people failing at timing the market.  You go short and get crushed, switch to long then get crushed.

For argument's sake, and I'm not trying to be combative here, but why call it an "unexpected depression".  The bad housing and jobs numbes have been expected every single week, and when they are announced the market trades down a percent or two.  But then trades back up.  In other words the double dip is baked in and we are range bound, IMO.

Being too short or too long is not working as many of you say.  But one thing you CAN do is buy cheap stocks on down days.  Sorry if that doesn't fit your model of day trading, or a double dip, but it has been working pretty well for me YTD.  I'm not up huge, however, I take my lumps just like the rest of you.

 

 

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#13) On September 01, 2010 at 10:51 PM, Momentum21 (94.51) wrote:

BearishKW (41.18) - ...but this sounds to me like a lot of people failing at timing the market.  You go short and get crushed, switch to long then get crushed.

exactly! the S&P is down 10% since the end of April so it's not like the longs are exactly rolling in it...

If you had a bullish bias you would be buying the dips and making up on days like today...a bearish bias and maybe you are doing pretty darn well since then...but trying to jump in and out will kill anyone. It's more about managing your risk and bankroll.  

That is why I give IBD a hard time...he comes up with very good ideas but seems to get emotional. This is not an easy game...you really have to me committed to a strategy of some sort and be able to whether the storm over time. Preserve capital...how many times have you seen aces get busted in poker? It happens! And just because it happens doesn't mean the game is fixed...just try to have enough chips to keep playing and keep the odds in your favor for the long haul...even if ever so slightly.

And sorry for the multiple posts...I was only trying to be a little obnoxious with IBD after the 7AM report. : ) 

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#14) On September 02, 2010 at 12:39 AM, BearishKW (< 20) wrote:

IMO poker is a MUCH tougher game...I hate getting aces busted!

 

:)

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#15) On September 02, 2010 at 11:28 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.66) wrote:

Market comes back to its senses today, goes back to its trend which is down for the neart-term.

Don't blame me when you see all of yesterday's gains gone in a few days.

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#16) On September 02, 2010 at 11:41 AM, outoffocus (22.84) wrote:

Why would we blame you?  Do you really have that much power?

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#17) On September 02, 2010 at 1:05 PM, BearishKW (< 20) wrote:

#15) On September 02, 2010 at 11:28 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (95.14) wrote:

Market comes back to its senses today, goes back to its trend which is down for the neart-term.

Don't blame me when you see all of yesterday's gains gone in a few days.

 

 

It's a good thing I care very little about what happens over the next few days.  If the market goes down I buy more, if the market goes up I profit...I'm happy either way.

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#18) On September 02, 2010 at 6:48 PM, bigcat1969 (92.24) wrote:

Unexpectedly is a joke about the media.  I was reading through news stories about the markets, housing, employment, etc... and almost every story was headlined or used unexpectedly or unexpected far more than you would expect.  Mostly "experts" said something would move one way and it went the other, so the result was unexpected.

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#19) On September 03, 2010 at 10:24 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.66) wrote:

The Media hordes are out of touch. All they ever do is report what has happened already. They are the world's biggest Monday Quarterback.

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#20) On September 05, 2010 at 8:58 PM, truthisntstupid (77.78) wrote:

My answer to market-timers and short-term  "investors"  is in the comment section here.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/09/01/dividends-save-the-day.aspx

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