Today is likely the start of the next up wave: four reasons.
From the pricing changes in stocks today, it is looking like a 90% up-day. This is after three down days, where one of the down days had 90% of the stocks falling in price. This typically occurs at the end of a correction, and sets the bottom.
Positive news is coming out of Europe. The big price swings do not seem to happen due to randomness, or due to technical analysis. They appear to happen mainly on the swings of the media tone. Last march, we had a big rally because the media tone began to switch from "collapse" to "recovery" in March. This January we had a media tone switch from "recovery" to "europe problems / debt problems". We are also seeing a change in tone from "china leading the stimulus" to "china is a bubble". It's amazing how powerful the media and stories are in affecting the markets, versus people doing their own due diligence. I believe I was hearing Jim Cramer yelling sell-sell sell this last week. Don't believe it.
We have hit the bottom of the portefeuille curve on the down day yesterday. So, unless the long term trend is broken, we need to move up.
There is positive news coming, which may not be priced into the market. Namely, it is highly likely we will see employment grow in the US in these spring months. Read the Good News Economist Blog for a nice trend line of employment. I've been a fan of his blog since he has been on the right side of the predictions of recovery vs alstry-doom.
I'm thinking we begin the uptrend to S&P 1200 now after this nice correction, which started on the dot at S&P 1150 (as I had *guessed* well). It seems that using the portefeuille curve can definitely help inform your guesses, though!