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dpdoor (< 20)

Today is the last day of the recession



December 18, 2008 – Comments (9)

What the news media has failed to realize is this recession actually started in October of 2005. The stock market dropped some that month but then the money from real estate started to poor into the stock market (real estate was no longer profitable and you have to put your money somewhere). The market should have eased but instead it went up.

We are not going be as extravagant in our spending for many years but 2009 will not be much worse than 2008.

The last few month consumers have been bombarded with media reports of layoffs and risk of depression. They are given an excuse not to spend as much. They are holding back waiting to see what happens. Oct, Nov, Dec were worse because of fear more than anything else. Spending should be down, we don’t have the boom time money anymore, but the last qtr of this year was exaggerated from the media bombarding us with fear. Next year will be fine. It won’t have the extravagant spending but it won’t be any worse than last year. If today isn’t the last day of the recession then it will be with in a few months. I say I’ts over.

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 18, 2008 at 3:13 PM, icesword2 (64.50) wrote:

I think that the stock market will turn around next year, but bull markets generally start near the beginning of a recession, not the end.  What data indicates to you that the economic recession has ended?

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#2) On December 18, 2008 at 3:16 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

 The data will be out in spring of 09


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#3) On December 18, 2008 at 4:08 PM, dangerfairy (< 20) wrote:


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#4) On December 18, 2008 at 4:47 PM, abitare (29.45) wrote:

Sure the largest credit bubble ever blown, now popped, will clean up in 2009...sure.

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#5) On December 18, 2008 at 6:45 PM, devoish (65.60) wrote:

We will see. One rec for you for an original thought, right or wrong.

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#6) On December 18, 2008 at 9:12 PM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

Love it, no one believed me we I predicted the dot com bust ( I named the date 8 months before it happened). No one believed me in 1999 when I said the market was dangerously high. No one believed me a year ago when I said the market would go to 8500. No one would listen when I beg them to pull out of the market in late 2007. Few believed me when I said Nov 7 2008 the market would slide to its low (I expected 6700 and it went to 7600) then return to 8500. So please don’t believe me now. My portfolio is up 80% in a years time, so again don’t listen to me.

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#7) On December 19, 2008 at 12:20 AM, icesword2 (64.50) wrote:

Congratulations on your successes!

It's not that we're not listening to you.  We wouldn't bother to comment if that were true.  I just want to know why you're calling the end of the recession on Thursday December 18.  What sort of signals do you look for when you make your macro calls?

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#8) On December 19, 2008 at 2:28 AM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

There are many reasons and each one can be argued but the biggest is the excitement over the lower mortgage rates. I am not saying we are going back to a spending spree but my customers were starting to cut loose before the banks lowered the interest rates and with less then 5% loans there is some excitement going on.

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#9) On December 19, 2008 at 2:32 AM, dpdoor (< 20) wrote:

Sorry if I am defensive but I have watch many people I know loose a great deal because they listened to their broker instead of me. It is very frustrating.

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