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Today's Trading Plan: The Calm Before Employment



November 01, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , QQQ , DIA

Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

Europe is trading 0.7% higher. 

Asian markets traded in a wide range from -1.3% up to +0.8%. 

US futures are flat ahead of the open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Productivity and Costs (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing INdex (8:58am), ISM Manufacturing Index (10am), Consumer Confidence (10am), Construction Spending (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

Another flat day in the market, but saw us once again test the rising trend-line off of the October 2011 lows. Today that support lies at 1409. 

There is overhead resistance between 1425 and 1432, that the bulls will need to break through, before I can have any optimism towards this market. 

We are just barely coming out of short-term oversold conditions. Longer-term we are definitively oversold. 

We have consolidated very tight for four straight days. A sharp move is likely in the coming days. The tight coiling suggests it is to the downside. 

1400 has been well defended of late, particularly in the S&P futures overnight. We'll see whether the bears can push price below that level or not. 

Employment number comes out tomorrow, and will carry much weight towards the U.S. presidential election. We could see a sharp reaction on a significant beat/miss. 

Triple-top confirmed on the SPX over the past two months. 

Weekly chart also supports a breakdown in the previous channel, and end to its longer-term uptrend off of the June lows. 

VIX spiked above 18 yesterday. 

Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return. 

One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

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