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Today's Trading: Seeking Normalcy

October 31, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , IWM , QQQ

Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

Europe is trading mix from -0.2% up to +0.6%. 

Asian markets traded 0.9% higher. 

US futures are trading moderately higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Employment Cost Index (8:30am), Treasury Refunding Announcement (9am), Chicago PMI (9:45am), Farm Prices (3pm)

After being closed for four days (counting the normal weekend), market action today could be very unpredictable. 

On  Friday, SPX had a perfect test of the trend-line off of the October 2011 lows. Today that support rests at 1404-5

The price range over the last four days of trading on the SPY has consolidated nicely. A move above $142.10, and things should get more bullish. 

With the confirmed triple-top in place on SPX, any rally that we get today, should face resistance at 1425. 

Volume  has steadily increased over the last two trading sessions. 

Short-term we are oversold, and no doubt ready for a bounce. Sometimes, it can take a lot longer than you think to have happen. 

Price support also exists at 1400.

Weekly chart also supports a breakdown in the previous channel, and end to its longer-term uptrend off of the June lows. 

30-minute chart is showing some accumulation/channeling at the lows of the recent sell-off. 

VIX is below 18. 

Fed's QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return. 

One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3

Chart for SPX: