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reddingrunner (92.77)

too many bulls: what to do now?



October 29, 2013 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: AAPL , NTLS.DL , NOAH

add me to the list of those who are getting nervous.  i'm generally not a market timer but I do make adjustments from time to time.  for now i'll be selling two positions for every one that i buy and gradually raising cash, trying to go from 5% to 25-30% by the end of the year.   and i'll be primarily selling my growth stocks and primarily buying value stocks/ dividend payers.  and yes, i do still like AAPL in the latter category.

i'm also moving a bit more into emerging markets where i especially like EMCG (etf).  Another non-CAPS investment that looks real good to me now is PHDG (HDG as in hedge).  Also RLY and PAUIX.

I also bought NTLS and NZTCY recently (telecoms) for their dividends, as well as ETP.

I still have plenty of growth stocks for now and especially like companies like NUS and HLF as emerging market plays.

Because investing is so difficult now, I have a number of investment firms such as APO, NOAH, FBRC and SFG, with FFG and FIG and KKR on my watch list. 

caveat: since i've done so well in the last 5 years, i'm in a position where moving to more safety/ less growth makes more sense for me than it might make for someone who has further to go. 


4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 30, 2013 at 12:25 PM, Teacherman1 (< 20) wrote:

I too have been "culling" my portfolio.

I am not so worried about a "crash", or even a "significant correction", as I am bothered by what appears a complete lack of rationality in what is being "bid up" and what is being "bid down".

It seems like the markets have turned into a "trading casino", with "overshoots" to the "upside" or the "downside" on the mere mention of some event, real or imagined.

I am now about 20% in cash, and will probably move to 25% in the near term.

I am still watching for "overlooked" opportunities, but I am getting a little more particular than I have been in the past.

Good luck with you investments and may you do as well over the next 5 years as over the past 5.

Not "panic", but "prudence", and the need for a "break" to rest my "sore brain".

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#2) On October 30, 2013 at 10:05 PM, awallejr (34.78) wrote:

I am actually 17% cash in my portfolio which is unusual for me since I tend to be fully invested.  I have cash in the bank but I don't count that since that is there for emergencies.

I am not nervous but I do expect a correction. Nothing major.

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#3) On November 02, 2013 at 9:03 AM, iamnik77 (90.89) wrote:

I too favor having some cash in this market. I am about 20% cash right now. Buffet has mentioned always keeping a bullet in his gun so he can catch his next elephant. I'm undecided about how optimal my cash position is but one thing I know: Having a bullet in my gun keeps me hunting for the next elephant. I do much better research when I actually have cash to deploy. So, regardless of how optimal my 20% cash position is, the fact I have it makes me a more engaged investor.

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#4) On November 07, 2013 at 2:18 AM, reddingrunner (92.77) wrote:

I tend to stay fully invested.  I would have cash only if you could earn at least 2 or 3% interest.  Otherwise, it seems like a loser's game long run.  But I do switch from growth stocks to value stocks and some alternative investments at a time like this.  If the market keeps going up, as many believe, I'll still go up with it. If it crashes, as many believe, I've reduced my losses.  But over time, stocks will beat cash.  It would have made perfect sense to go to a large cash position at this time last year with all the uncertainties in the air- and it would have cost you a lot of money if you did so.  Right now I'm unloading most of my stocks that have a high enterprise value/ebitda ratio and replacing them with low e/e dividend stocks. 

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