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Too many minds...

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May 04, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BBRY , SKF

From the movie the Last Samurai.  When Tom Cruise is attempting to become a Samurai, he is told by the lord of the village, that he has "Too many mind..."  This is the lord's way of telling him that he is over-thinking things.  When Cruise concentrates on the lone task at hand, he manages to score against his opponent...and in the end, becomes a Samurai.  Now, I am far from a Samurai (clearly not a market expert), and I am certainly no Tom Cruise, but the potential to over-think the market and all of the media input/stimulus is something we can all identify with.

H1N1 Scares the World

For instance, everyone out there knows that a major epidemic or pandemic will sway the economy in one direction or another.  And the fear mongering media managed to create enough stir that everyone started buying pharmaceuticals or at least started entertaining getting into health and medical stocks.  Not to make light of the potential harm that H1N1 could do, but it has been pointed out in several places online and in mainstream media that more folks have died from the medicines used to vaccinate people against some of these viruses than from the viruses themselves.  Everyone bought into the media hype, and yet the market charged onward and upward.  So perhaps the media over-thought the H1N1 virus rather than painting it in the same fashion as its brother and sister viruses that did not really amount to much.  I am not saying that H1N1 is overdone, but so far we have not seen anything to substantiate the fears that the media have painted for everyone to see.  Just a personal observation, and an acknowledgment that my earlier blog about chicken eggs seems to have ended with the correct assessment...too early to count the chickens.

Consuming...or getting consumed...

GM and Chrysler, consume or consumed? I am thinking they have been consumed.  With one filing and another the target of a buy out, I am thinking that both lost to the greed that consumed them.  They made big bets and lost.  Hopefully, the big bets being made by our government will not cause the taxpayers to big as big a group of losers as most of the companies that received the bailout funds.  For my part, I have tried to help stimulate the economy, by consuming.  I took my family out to dinner the other night, and the restaurants were packed.  So I am not alone in my efforts to stimulate the economy.  I did take advantage of some of the consumer deals that are out there.  For instance, my wife and I picked up a pair of Research In Motion's Blackberry Storms in a two-for-one deal through Verizon Wireless.  So far, a lot more phone than I am used to, but it allows me to do a lot more than I could before.  For much less than the price of a laptop, I am able to send e-mails, make phone calls, text, chat, and peer in on things here at TMF and elsewhere on the web.  So now I can actually keep tabs on things a bit better than before and all with a gucci new touch screen super phone.  My kids also helped stimulate the economy by feeding a near endless supply of quarters into the gum-ball machines at the mall.  Much to their disappointment, the near endless supply of quarters was a lot more limited than they expected. 

Bull or Bear?  I don't really care...

I know blasphemy.  But it is true.  I once asked my very wealthy brother who does this trading and investing thing with great success how much he lost during a down day.  He told me that he really didn't have a big loss.  In my naivety I could not understand how he couldn't have lost money during such a blatantly red day on the market.  He told me that a smart investor/trader can make money in both up and down markets.  I am far from a smart trader, but I am learning.  And some of the fruits of my learning are that smart picks can make money both in an up and in a down market, and I have seen that in action.  Happily today's very up market translated into a very nice green day for me.  I decided to test the waters with a contrary selection of a short ETF to see what will happen in a pull back.  Relatively inexpensive experiment on my part.  I bought a whopping 25 shares of SKF today after it broke its 52 week low, and then it continued on down another $4 as the market closed out with a bang.  With such an up day, I figured there would be a pull back at some point, and my $115 dollar paper loss would quickly reverse itself.  Time will tell on this little experiment, but as I have read before on TMF and have said once or twice myself...I am gambling with the house's money at this point.  If I win, I can give the house its money back and keep the difference.  If not, then I'll just sit on it until I do...so I guess I am long on a short ETF...if that makes sense.  But I am trying to figure out how to keep making money in both the up and down markets...whenever the market starts to reverse its course for certain, I will get to try out the short side of things for real.  For now this little ETF will do. 

Too many mind...

So I have been thinking about a lot of things.  All I do know, for certain, is that the media paints pictures as they see fit, and their pictures are not always applicable everywhere.  So while I know the economy s _ _ ks at the moment, I can't help but wonder what the media is really talking about.  Why?  Because around here where I live, the consumers are out spending, housing prices have started to climb (albeit very slowly), and things don't seem too darn bad.  Of course, I see that there are more vacancies in the small store arena at the mall, I see fewer construction projects around here with any kind of hustle or bustle to indicate things are moving there, and of course, the job market is tight...but there are jobs to be had for those who really, work at finding them (heck my sister-in-law just got a brand new job that nearly doubled her annual income...she left two jobs for one, so there are at least two job openings that I am aware of.)  But here I am...using too many mind.

There're my random thoughts for the week.  Until next time...Fool on. 

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 04, 2009 at 10:57 PM, russiangambit (29.14) wrote:

>  Because around here where I live, the consumers are out spending, housing prices have started to climb (albeit very slowly), and things don't seem too darn bad.  

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You live in VA? It is government money. Government is the only entity that is doing well right now.

I also ask myself why does media spin the things to make them appear better, - Bloomberg comes to mind, CNBC is not even worth talking about, they were predicting Armageddon if Obama is elected and now suddenly Obama is just fine. Obama also changed his tone very quickly  after being elected, I bet it irks him not to be able to talk about how big of a mess it is.  After all, sensation, doom&gloom sell much better. I think it is due to their mangement and the boards, they want good news, they want business to grow. Nobody in their right mind is going to invest in business or sepnd on advertising, if everybody sasy unemployement will be 15%. That is their motif - self-preservation.

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