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speedybure (< 20)

Top 5 Silver Investments to hold through the cycle

Recs

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October 13, 2011 – Comments (25) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , AG , AXU

 5) The fifth choice is often hard to pick as it is usually the most compeptitive. Normally I would say Fortuna and am infact sticking with that pick for the time being, Great Panther is a close second. I have talked to many indivudals who have the opportunity to visit the flagship operation - The San Jose mine. I have heard nothing but great things said about this mine from the infrastructure to the very helpful staff ready to answer and questions one may have. One Point of concern, which I also share with Great Panther are the medium & long term growth production profiles. 

4) Silvercorp - I have recently posted a blog regarding the supposed allegations, which have turned to be nothing more than a poor hack job but were previously defended by myself and the likes of Sinchy and others.  

3) First Majestic - Another attractive primary silver producer with 3 mines currently in operation, with 2 more scheduled to comeonline in 2012 and 2013. This includes what will be its largest producing asset in Del Toro - my personal forecast is for 7m-8m oz annually after it is fully optimized.

2) Alexco has been a long time favorite, but the price action so far means there is a lot of room for this company to run up 3-4-5+ fold. Although its only currently operating asset in the Bellekeno Mine- sceduled to produce anywhere from 2.7m-3m oz Ag in 2012 excluding bi-products. In late 2012 Lucky Queen and Onek should start shippiing ore and commence commercial productions sometime in 2013, vastly growing its production growth profile to between 5-5.5m oz with significant Zinc byproduct credits from Onek.

1) Silver Wheaton - I have always considered SLW my favorite silver company and word on the street is SLW will soon acquire a 25% stake in Corani for between 300-340m for the right to recieve 25% of all silver produced, which more or less equates to approx 4m oz. I;m Sure SLW is looking at something such as the Montanore projects from Mines mgmt to buy a stream in, to the tune of 2.5m-3m. This is my own personal outlook and how they will go about achieving a 50m oz streaming company. 

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 13, 2011 at 9:29 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Aurcana/Scorpio 6th?

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#2) On October 13, 2011 at 9:32 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

Hey Speedy one more quick thing... did u get a chance to see the latest CFTC reports?

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/are-the-banks-covering-their/653421

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#3) On October 13, 2011 at 10:37 PM, TheDumbMoney (42.80) wrote:

http://peterlbrandt.com/silver-slv-it-doesnt-get-any-uglier-than-this/

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#4) On October 14, 2011 at 9:30 AM, Frankydontfailme (27.19) wrote:

DTAF, I will make a gentleman's bet with you: silver hits 60 before it hits 20.

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#5) On October 14, 2011 at 9:30 AM, Frankydontfailme (27.19) wrote:

DTAF, I will make a gentleman's bet with you: silver hits 60 before it hits 20.

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#6) On October 14, 2011 at 11:01 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.98) wrote:

Hey speedy, if you ever want to discuss Great Panther's growth profile, shoot me an e-mail and we'll talk on the phone. :)

Also, I'll be visiting their Guanajuato mine soon, and of course will recount the experience here at the Fool.

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#7) On October 14, 2011 at 11:16 AM, TheDumbMoney (42.80) wrote:

Franky, just to be clear, I'm just posting the link because that guy has traded commodities for like 30 years and compounded at an audited 40% annualized rate or something. And he thinks the chart says silver is set for for a real drop.  (He's a long term gold bull, by the way.)  I think the chart is just a chart. Personally, I think if it turns out we're going into a recession, silver will see $20 before it sees $60.  I think if that turns out not to be the case, silver will see at least $50 again before it sees $20.  In a liquidity crisis if the ECB doesn't get its act together, silver will see $20.  It will drop just like it did in late 2008.  Brandt candidly states he is only right on the charts 33% of the time and his whole game is risk control.  But the guy has a pretty long track record and he is pretty convinced of the chart action on this one.  How would we do a bet?  Paypal?  I don't want to disclose my real name to anybody, which is a problem b/c my paypal is in my name.  I'll make a nonmonetary bet though:  I'll bow down and worship at your alter if silver hits $60 before it his $20.  I'll rec all your posts even if I don't agree with them.  And I will even call Mr. Barker "sinchie," which will be a real hard one for me.  And you can post anything on my blogs and I will not try to rebut it.  If I win, you'll rec every post you see that I write and I don't know, come up with some other suggestions.

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#8) On October 14, 2011 at 11:17 AM, TheDumbMoney (42.80) wrote:

I'm not going to downthumb any silver ETFs though, b/c my CAPS picks are all real life positions, and only real life positions, and I don't short things in real life.

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#9) On October 14, 2011 at 11:19 AM, TheDumbMoney (42.80) wrote:

Also, to be clear:  even under Brandt's analysis, the $20 case only holds if silver breaks below the pennant.  If silver breaks above that first (which is I presume where he has his stop), then all bets are off on his $20 thesis.  He's a pure chartist, with no ideology or deeper analysis than that.

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#10) On October 14, 2011 at 12:58 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.98) wrote:

DTAF, At least get the spelling right ... :)  It's Sinchi. And why, out of curiosity, would you find it hard to calll me by my TMF username? That seems a bit odd.

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#11) On October 14, 2011 at 1:04 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.98) wrote:

FWIW,

I'm not trusting the latest rally either. I'm raising cash in order to be able to buy the dip that is likely to occur in the early stages of the Eurozone's next stage of its crisis.

But I think both Europe and the US will not waste time getting additional bold QE up and running as the crisis rears its head, so I see $20 silver highly unlikely. Physical demand will support the market into any further dip, and I think $24 is unlikely to be breached.

On the flip side, it's entirely plausible that Europe and the FED could announce coordinated QE extremely early-on; a scenario under which gold and silver would convincingly reinstate their upward momentum.

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#12) On October 14, 2011 at 1:19 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.19) wrote:

DTAF, I have a lot of respect for Brandt. But he's a pure technician. The Charts suggest silver could fall to 24. Like you mentioned, even a great chartists like Petey is only right 1/3rd of the time. I don't think we ever see 20 dollar silver again.

Just a gentleman's bet, whoever is right gets to say they're right thats all.

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#13) On October 14, 2011 at 1:22 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.19) wrote:

And I'd stick with me reccing your blogs when I think they deserve it and you rebutting my comments when you think I deserve it regardless of the outcome.

How about this, I'll try my best to read everything you write and think critically about it (pretty much what I do anyway), if silver hits 20 before 60. If it hits 60 before 20, you can just admit you were wrong :)

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#14) On October 14, 2011 at 2:15 PM, TheDumbMoney (42.80) wrote:

#10, as far as I know your TMF username is silverminer, or TMFSincheruna.  "sinchi" by contrast reads as an adorational/devotional nickname.  There is something almost teen-girlish about the way people seem to use it around here.  It could be I simply perceive it this way because when I was in high school, there was a very, very popular guy (much more popular than me), and all the girls called him (on their own instigation) by a very similar name, rather than by his actual name.  It's like when girls titter and call a guy name Mike, "Mikey."  It just skeeves me out.  Yeah, I'm shallow like that.  :-)

Franky, ok, no money.  I'm not going to say $20 (I had after all merely posted the link after all).  But gentleman's bet:  I say silver will go to $22 before it hits $60.  The way I read his chart, $22 is a more reasonable target for the completion of the pattern than $20 is.  Is that OK with you? 

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#15) On October 14, 2011 at 2:17 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.19) wrote:

Yep.

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#16) On October 14, 2011 at 3:03 PM, SN3165 (< 20) wrote:

@ #11 , also the possibility that the big silver short positions by banks will be covered at the lower prices

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#17) On October 14, 2011 at 3:10 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.19) wrote:

And for what its worth, I think silver will rally towards 37-38 before heading down to 28-30. It could spike back to 26 again but that's the bottom for sure. Unless I'm wrong.

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#18) On October 14, 2011 at 6:03 PM, speedybure (< 20) wrote:

SN3165 : Yes I actually just posted an article on Financial Sense about the latest release. http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-marchese/2011/10/14/silver-on-the-verge-of-a-major-breakout

Sinchy: That'd be great. I reduced my position 75% after a run from 42 cents to 4.80, having put about 1/3 of it back on. I'm still in about 15% cash after having bought an ungodly amount of svm in the mid 6's and Axu around 6.60. That is money i would have redirected towards things like great panther but Alexco is everything a silver investor looks for : operates in Canada (some diversity as most primary producers operate in Mexico), ability to bring on mines cheaply and in a timely manner, very high grade, tight share structure, etc.  

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#19) On October 15, 2011 at 1:05 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

For what it is worth, I like Aurcana for #5 because:

Aurcana Reports 26% Increase in YTD Silver Production at La Negra and Shafter Silver Mine Construction Update

8:31 AM ET 10/7/11 | Marketwire

Aurcana Corporation ("Aurcana" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE: AUN)(OTCQX: AUNFF)(PINK SHEETS: AUNFF) is pleased to report silver production for Q3 2011 of 244,243 ounces that is based on just 80 days of mill production at La Negra. Year-to-date ("YTD"), silver production has increased 26% to 742,026 ounces, compared to 587,057 ounces in 2010. As anticipated, Q3 2011 silver production was slightly lower than 2010's 250,953 ounces as a result of the La Negra ball mill being down nine mill days in order to upgrade a ball mill.

Due to this maintenance, total mill feed of 119,772 tonnes was 4% lower than the 125,050 tonnes for Q3 of 2010. However, on a daily basis when the mill was in production at La Negra, the improvements at La Negra resulted in a 7% increase in the number of tonnes milled per day of 1,497 compared to 1,405 in Q3 2010.

Of 119,772 mill feed tonnes in Q3, 17% (20,562 tonnes) were from NI 43-101 Measured and Indicated Resources and 83% (99,210 tonnes) were from new discoveries or non-compliant resources. La Negra is now applying 43-101 standards in developing new mineralized zones to increase our compliant resources. Additionally, new ore zone development initiatives are being carried out on the Northwest Trend.

La Negra Highlights

-- 26% increase in silver produced to 742,026 ounces YTD 2011 compared to 587,057 ounces for YTD 2010. -- 47% increase in contained zinc to 1,253 tonnes compared to 850 tonnes for Q3 of 2010. -- As anticipated, contained copper production was down to 362 tonnes in Q3 2011 compared to 492 tonnes in Q3 2010 due to variable ore zones. Aurcana experienced a significant improvement in realized contained copper grades rising to 23% in Q3 2011 from 13% in Q3 2010 due to the effect of the new lead circuit. -- Lead circuit continues to perform well, producing 455 tonnes of contained lead which helped improve overall recoveries and increase the quality of our concentrates. -- 4% increase in ore mined to 134,072 tonnes in Q3 2011 from 128,666 tonnes in Q3 2010. -- 18% increase in mineralized materials stockpiled from beginning to end of Q3 2011, with the total stockpile now standing at 94,524 tonnes.

La Negra is on track to complete the ongoing mill upgrade to 2,000 tpd in Q1 2012, a 33% increase from the current capacity. This will bring the mill throughput capacity in-line with our planned mining operations of 2,000 tonnes per day.

Shafter Mine Construction Milestones completed in Q3, 2011

The Company commenced construction of the Shafter Mine in January of this year with an anticipated completion date of May 2012.

-- Portal is completed and the Ramp is now developed 300 feet underground. -- Reclaim Tunnel has now been completed. -- Ball Mill Foundations have been completed and the Mill has been delivered to site. -- Two of the 6 Leach Tanks have been installed. -- Air Permit has been received and the last permit is now in process for modifying the production rate to 1,500 tpd. Once this permit is received the Shafter mine will be fully permitted. -- Construction of the Shafter office at the mine site is underway with the external parts of the building complete, construction is continuing with the interior. -- The Merrill Crowe Equipment is built and ready for shipment. -- The refurbishing and modifications to the Filter Presses for the mill are well underway. -- Underground Production Equipment has been ordered for delivery in December 2011 through April 2012. -- Underground Development Equipment is on site and being used for decline development. -- There are 40 employees now on site. -- Jason Cyr was appointed General Manager for Shafter, taking over responsibilities from the project manager in September, 2011.

Summary

During Q3 2011, La Negra continued to perform close to the 1,500 tonne per day production capacity. Construction of the Shafter Mine is on schedule and the Company advanced the permitting process, with only one permit outstanding at Shafter. Aurcana continues to focus on its future growth.

Corporate

The Company's shares are now also traded in the United States on OTCQX under the symbol "AUNFF". Investors can find current financial disclosure and Real-Time Level 2 quotes for the Company on www.otcqx.com and www.otcmarkets.com.

About Aurcana Corporation:

The Shafter Silver Mine is scheduled to start production within 7 months and it is estimated will produce 3.8 million ounces silver in the first year of operation. It has an NI 43-101 Measured and Indicated Resource of 24.6 million ounces of silver and an Inferred Resource of 22.8 million ounces of silver using a 4.0 ounce per ton cut off. The 92% owned La Negra silver-lead-zinc-copper mine has produced 1 million ounces of contained silver over the last 4 quarters.

The reader should be cautioned that the Company has not completed a feasibility study to confirm the projected production capacity for La Negra and there is no certainty the Company's plans will be economically viable.

This scientific and technical information contained in this news release has been reviewed by Andy Nichols, P.Eng., of the Company, and a Qualified Person ("QP") as defined by National Instrument 43-101 (Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects).

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF AURCANA CORPORATION

Lenic Rodriguez, President & CEO

For further information, visit the website at www.aurcana.com

 Disclosure:  I am stacking shares up.

Sky Pilot

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#20) On October 16, 2011 at 8:17 AM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Speedy and Sinch,

I see you've "dumped" Aurcana in CAPS.  Did you in R. L.?  What's not to like?

thanks,

 

Sky Pilot

 

 

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#21) On October 17, 2011 at 5:06 PM, speedybure (< 20) wrote:

I still have it in real life. Not expecting much until they can show the market bringing Shafter online will run smoothly. 

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#22) On October 18, 2011 at 11:08 AM, rodney15 (< 20) wrote:

not a fan of Primero speedy?

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#23) On October 19, 2011 at 10:22 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

Re: Silver Wheaton:

Closed @ $28.91

52 week High: $47.60

Down 39%

Getting close to "Double Up" time.

Sky Pilot

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#24) On October 26, 2011 at 10:32 PM, skypilot2005 (< 20) wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Atna-Drilling-Increases-Size-prnews-264935130.html?x=0&.v=1

 

Atna Drilling Increases Size of Reward Gold Deposit

 

Highlights of the drill results include:

65 feet (19.8 m) grading 0.079 oz/ton gold (2.72 g/t) in hole number RW11-02370 feet (21.3 m) grading 0.026 oz/ton gold (0.89 g/t) in hole number RW11-024230 feet (70.1 m) grading 0.021 oz/ton gold (0.72 g/t) in hole number RW11-026200 feet (61.0 m) grading 0.032 oz/ton gold (1.10 g/t) in hole number RW11-027

 

"Early results from our September drilling program indicate that we have yet to define the limits of the Reward Gold deposit. Several of the holes have thicknesses and grades significantly better than the deposit's average and extend the known gold mineralization further to the east and southeast. These encouraging results justify additional drilling to further increase reserves and to increase the expected mine life at Reward," said James Hesketh, President & CEO.  

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#25) On October 27, 2011 at 2:25 PM, TheDumbMoney (42.80) wrote:

H&S failed on this, Franky, so you're going to win this bet.  And, more fundamentally, the short term real treasury yield has been tanking over the last few days (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldYear&year=2011), so gold and silver are likely going much, much higher.

Totally NON-expert opinion.

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