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GenevaProdigy (27.32)

Top CAPS Fools (EverydayInvestor, UltraLong, tenmiles etc)

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June 07, 2009 – Comments (11)

I wonder what kind of returns top fools are able to make in real life (using long, short and options)?     If anybody could make a hefty profit from investing it's probably ultralong. UltraLong has 90+% accuracy and his average score is above 80 which means that he beat the market by 80. Assuming that the market grew by 10% annually, UltraLong would have made 90% return. This does not take into consideration derivatives which could boost returns dramatically (of course you can lose dramatically too). Now that speaks volume.

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 07, 2009 at 4:29 PM, portefeuille (99.62) wrote:

UltraLong has 90+% accuracy and his average score is above 80 which means that he beat the market by 80. Assuming that the market grew by 10% annually, UltraLong would have made 90% return. This does not take into consideration derivatives which could boost returns dramatically (of course you can lose dramatically too). Now that speaks volume.

Not so fast. Nothing against ultralong, but being long just one leveraged equity ETF (say one based on the S&P 500 index) would have yielded almost the same result. You should notice that almost all calls were made on March 9 2009 and the objects of those calls almost exclusively have a high positive beta. It might be a better idea to base your judgement on the python script written by foolsmethrice (see comment #24 here) ... 

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#2) On June 07, 2009 at 4:32 PM, portefeuille (99.62) wrote:

For more on the (ir)relevance of the "caps" game "accuracy" see this post.

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#3) On June 07, 2009 at 5:21 PM, portefeuille (99.62) wrote:

#7) On February 25, 2009 at 7:24 AM, portefeuille (99.98) wrote:

Some time ago I looked at the points the "top 8" players in caps had scored with "outperform calls".

I had to go to 8 because that was the first to have scored "considerably" that way ("BravoBevo" - 7779 points with "outperform calls" at that time).

"outperform scores" of the others:

2905 (current #4 in caps), 1903 (#9), 1329 (you,#3), 1282 (#1), 440 (#3), -332 (#2), -400 (#6).

----------------

(from here)

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#4) On June 07, 2009 at 5:23 PM, portefeuille (99.62) wrote:

now to answer your question:

zzlangerhans for biotech stocks.

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#5) On June 07, 2009 at 5:26 PM, portefeuille (99.62) wrote:

The abovementioned foolsmethrice and bravobevo (especially for obscure stuff. I do not know how well you can "follow" him with those though ...) are good candidates as well.

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#6) On June 07, 2009 at 7:24 PM, LongTermBull (94.58) wrote:

I don't think you can use CAPS to identify people who make good returns in real life.  Most top people have so many picks there is no way you could invest in that many companies in real life.  Now, that doesn't mean they may not also make good returns in real life, they very well could, just saying you can't judge their real life ability on CAPS.

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#7) On June 07, 2009 at 7:35 PM, portefeuille (99.62) wrote:

Most top people have so many picks there is no way you could invest in that many companies in real life.

why not? there is the 200 calls limit.

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#8) On June 07, 2009 at 7:40 PM, abitare (45.19) wrote:

FYI - Six months+ ago I was heckling downwithinfidels a gold bull/America Bear, a former Top 10 Fool after he was taken down in CAPS and went Negative in points following the Commodity bubble pop.

I offered to buy his sister, and promised him some CAP points if he would switch to the One True Faith (Chistianity). He told me he was doing well and sent me some screen shots to prove it. 

I can say I will not be buying his sister...and it appears his faith is working just fine.  He had made some real money, real enough for me.

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#9) On June 07, 2009 at 8:39 PM, dwot (97.30) wrote:

Since I exit the market, about 3%, from guaranteed deposits at fixed rates.  Means I am up about 5-6% since the market peaked in the fall 2007. Good enough for now...

I guess overall since summer of 2006, when I started, I am up about 220%.  Works for me.

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#10) On June 07, 2009 at 9:13 PM, iamnik77 (96.06) wrote:

My real life portfolio has outperformed the market by about 3% annually but is doing surprisingly well at the moment by being down only 15% since the 2007 peak. Three weeks ago, I opened an experimental CAPS profile by the name "luckybychance". It has somewhere around 30 picks, all green thumb, with close to 65% accuracy and an average pick score of about 5. Five percent market outperformance in less than a month is a nice return so maybe I should start running my real money like my play money.

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#11) On June 08, 2009 at 2:49 PM, GenevaProdigy (27.32) wrote:

 portefeuille,

Hmm, isn't there any way to fix this flaw in the CAPS system?

 

An average score of 3 per pick might not even be enough to cover other expenses such as commission depending on the size of your investment. So yeah, it's flawed.

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