Top Fool Inbound a Commodity BEAR! Take a Load off Fannie! Gandalf the White Returns!
Here comes the new Top Fool!
From My post on 27 May 08: The Upcoming Top Fool Will Be a Commodity BEAR
May 27, 2008 – Comments (27) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , OIH , SLV
"Like Vader I sense danger in the commodity bubble. I have closed most of my commodity longs. So it will go for the First Commodity Bears, who attacks the Commodity Bull. The first ones in will be killed (ref my MOS, MON, POT calls). The guy, who times it right here in CAPS will be a hero and Top Fool, the way the previous Top Fool arrived by underperforming all the homebuilders and residential real estate....
But eventually the commodity bubble will be popped. The commodity bubble is the last bubble left by the reckless Central Banks monetary inflation and government overspending. When the commodity bubble pops, like the DeathStar explosion, you had better be clear."
Here he comes! mavericktrading< Add him to your favorites?!
Here is his post on 25 June 08 only 6 RECS?: Contrarian Call-Short the commodity and Ag sector!!!!
June 25, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: POT , JRCC , USO
As you can see in my score lately, my contrarian call to go short the commodity/resource and agriculture sectors has ruined my all too precious caps rating. After getting as high as #17 in this silly game we all play, I tried to pick a top in this bubble (yes, I am calling it a bubble). Trying to call tops has always been dangerous (as my stock accounts have witnessed over the last 15 years of full-time trading), but,in the long run all booms are followed by busts. I repeat "ALL BOOMS ARE FOLLOWED BY A BUST!"
BREAK MY COMMENTS:
I am 100% short the US market. My recommendation is you sell this rally. I have been short financials, but I would consider shorting commodities. Find the most run up STUPID MINERS or steal and short it.
Rates are going up, liquidity and stupidity is drying up. Earnings are going DOWN, DOWN! Stocks are a claim on future earnings, if they are weak, so will the stocks performance. Also stocks are expensive, at an average P/E of 20! I understand in the 70-80s BEAR market P/E floated arround 6-8. The govenment and SEC are not on the same team as us Fools. Unless you are a Central banker or a corrupt hedge fund...cough... PIMCO!...cough...cough, I would get out. Let them play their games with each other.
China is down 60% YTD! Russia is down 40%! Pakistan fell and the people rioted and sacked the exchange. The US is only down 20%, with the debt, war, the corruption, blantant lies, housing implosion and nationialization! R U KIDDING?? Would you believe it if I told you?
Rates are low, they are going up Wells Fargo is borrowing at 9.75%!
Rising rates will kill the remaining idiots in the stock market. In a Bear market 80% of the stocks fall. If you are targeting the 20%, I would consider Tobacco companies. Demondoug has a good write up here. Also there was a Tobacco company purchase today, even with the insanity.
Government cheerleaders can only lie so much before they create a panic or violent reaction.
Mish Shedlock has a good run down on the past lying.
Take A Load Off Fannie (Stolen from Mish)
Gandalf the White is a again in the news. He is supporting Obama. Gandalf the Grey let interst rates hit 20% in his days at the FED.
Ref: Volcker Says Finance System `Broken,' Losses May Rise (Update2)