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Top Fool Inbound a Commodity BEAR! Take a Load off Fannie! Gandalf the White Returns!

Recs

8

September 08, 2008 – Comments (11)

Here comes the new Top Fool! 

From My post on 27 May 08: The Upcoming Top Fool Will Be a Commodity BEAR

May 27, 2008 – Comments (27) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , OIH , SLV

 

"Like Vader I sense danger in the commodity bubble. I have closed most of my commodity longs. So it will go for the First Commodity Bears, who attacks the Commodity Bull. The first ones in will be killed (ref my MOS, MON, POT calls). The guy, who times it right here in CAPS will be a hero and Top Fool, the way the previous Top Fool arrived by underperforming all the homebuilders and residential real estate.... 

But eventually the commodity bubble will be popped. The commodity bubble is the last bubble left by the reckless Central Banks monetary inflation and government overspending. When the commodity bubble pops, like the DeathStar explosion, you had better be clear."

Here he comes! mavericktrading< Add him to your favorites?! 

Here is his post on 25 June 08 only 6 RECS?: 

Contrarian Call-Short the commodity and Ag sector!!!!

Recs 6

June 25, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: POT , JRCC , USO

As you can see in my score lately, my contrarian call to go short the commodity/resource and agriculture sectors has ruined my all too precious caps rating.  After getting as high as #17 in this silly game we all play, I tried to pick a top in this bubble (yes, I am calling it a bubble).  Trying to call tops has always been dangerous (as my stock accounts have witnessed over the last 15 years of full-time trading), but,in the long run all booms are followed by busts.  I repeat "ALL BOOMS ARE FOLLOWED BY A BUST!"

BREAK MY COMMENTS:

I am 100% short the US market. My recommendation is you sell this rally. I have been short financials, but I would consider shorting commodities. Find the most run up STUPID MINERS or steal and short it.

Rates are going up, liquidity and stupidity is drying up. Earnings are going DOWN, DOWN! Stocks are a claim on future earnings, if they are weak, so will the stocks performance. Also stocks are expensive, at an average P/E of 20! I understand in the 70-80s BEAR market P/E floated arround 6-8. The govenment and SEC are not on the same team as us Fools. Unless you are a Central banker or a corrupt hedge fund...cough... PIMCO!...cough...cough, I would get out. Let them play their games with each other.

China is down 60% YTD! Russia is down 40%! Pakistan fell and the people rioted and sacked the exchange. The US is only down 20%, with the debt, war, the corruption, blantant lies, housing implosion and nationialization! R U KIDDING?? Would you believe it if I told you?

Rates are low, they are going up Wells Fargo is borrowing at 9.75%! 

Rising rates will kill the remaining idiots in the stock market. In a Bear market 80% of the stocks fall. If you are targeting the 20%, I would consider Tobacco companies. Demondoug has a good write up here. Also there was a Tobacco company purchase today, even with the insanity.
Government cheerleaders can only lie so much before they create a panic or violent reaction.

Mish Shedlock has a good run down on the past lying.

Take A Load Off Fannie (Stolen from Mish)

 

Gandalf the White is a again in the news. He is supporting Obama. Gandalf the Grey let interst rates hit 20% in his days at the FED.

Ref:  Volcker Says Finance System `Broken,' Losses May Rise (Update2)

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 08, 2008 at 8:37 PM, abitare (49.76) wrote:

Jim Rogers on Fannie:

 

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#2) On September 08, 2008 at 8:37 PM, abitare (49.76) wrote:

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#3) On September 08, 2008 at 9:04 PM, LordZ wrote:

Tell me where is Gandalf for a greatly wish to speak with him ?

Said the silly pointed longhaired fairy blonde elf.

How come there were no black elfs ????? oh yeah they were the uri ki the elfs tortured and tormented by evil gods until they were forged into fierce evil fighting machines.

I'm starving we haven't had anything good to eat except for this stinkin maggoty bread.

Yeah why can't we have any meat ?

hey what about them they look fresh ?

They are not for eating !!!

O they look tastey how about just their legs they don't need them.

Get back you scum !!!!!

Just a mouthful.

I said no !!! and out comes the blade cutting off the goblins head.

Boys looks like meats back on the menu...

 

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#4) On September 08, 2008 at 9:09 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

It was a very impressive call, but his/her accuracy is only abut 70% and he has over a 1000 picks. Getting his/her accuracy above 80% (to catch specbear,everydayinvestor and TDRH) is going to be a challenge...

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#5) On September 08, 2008 at 9:29 PM, abitare (49.76) wrote:

Lordz,

U r funny.

Tastylunch,

Yep, I might be over stating his case a little. He did get killed in July. Speaking of, have you seen DownwithInfidel, he only has 279 points and lost 700 points today?  

 

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#6) On September 08, 2008 at 10:34 PM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

wow no I didn't, no wonder he hasn't posted any diatribes lately.

Well that's the risk you run sector betting or being wedded to one investment thesis. It's something that's easy to get caught up in if you aren't careful...

You TMFSarahgen, GMX and maybe a few others were about the only prominent CAPS bloggers I have seen who really nailed the seachange....

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#7) On September 08, 2008 at 11:29 PM, Harold71 (20.30) wrote:

What's holding up the dollar in the long-term?  Our fantastic economy?  With ever larger budget and trade deficits?  The US imports stuff and exports dollars, it is a matter of time before the world ends this game.  The problem is the sheer quantity of dollars held around the world.  A rush to the exits would hurt many...very few want to see that.

According to Jim Rogers, the commodity bull run is half over.  Oil has declined 50% on several occassions already during this run.  He's recently been buying ag commodities.

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#8) On September 09, 2008 at 12:02 AM, Harold71 (20.30) wrote:

What's holding up the dollar in the long-term?  Our fantastic economy?  With ever larger budget and trade deficits?  The US imports stuff and exports dollars, it is a matter of time before the world ends this game.  The problem is the sheer quantity of dollars held around the world.  A rush to the exits would hurt many...very few want to see that.

According to Jim Rogers, the commodity bull run is half over.  Oil has declined 50% on several occassions already during this run.  He's recently been buying ag commodities.

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#9) On September 09, 2008 at 4:29 AM, abitare (49.76) wrote:

Harold71,

The dollar is held by a number of things. The US will allow foreign ownership of its companies (generally). Lately, we have sold Budweiser, Chrysler Building, toll roads etc..

It is also held up by the oil borse. Oil is traded mainly in dollars. Plus, you can by US Treasuries with dollars. We are selling ourselves and our grandchildrens future.

it is a matter of time before the world ends this game.

Yep, but the US still has stuff to sell. I like JR, but if held on to his China Bull, this year you would be down 60%. And commodities are/have been coming down too. 

 

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#10) On September 09, 2008 at 11:58 PM, Harold71 (20.30) wrote:

I think oil supply/demand fundamentals are still good long-term, but the spike had to go away I suppose.

You're right, I think Rogers still owns his China shares, wants to pass them on to his daughters as I understand. He's a long-term man, that Jim.  "World's worst market timer" as he says...I'd say I'm somewhere on that list as well!

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#11) On September 09, 2008 at 11:58 PM, Harold71 (20.30) wrote:

I think oil supply/demand fundamentals are still good long-term, but the spike had to go away I suppose.

You're right, I think Rogers still owns his China shares, wants to pass them on to his daughters as I understand. He's a long-term man, that Jim.  "World's worst market timer" as he says...I'd say I'm somewhere on that list as well!

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