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Trading Plan for April 15, 2011

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April 15, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): HD (37.16), AMGN (53.93), AMLN (11.25), GLW (19.04), BTU (63.75), ADBE (33.78)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 50% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Industrial Production (9:15am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are flat heading into the open.

Asian markets traded in a mixed fashion, and Europe is doing the same.

S&P managed to rebound very nicely yesterday after a hard sell-off at the open and form a hammer candle to end the day (hammers are bullish typically).

However, it was unable to close above the 50 and 20-day moving averages.

Volume was in line with what we've been seeing this week.

We tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels yesterday and held it - in this case it was the 1305.

I think the next couple of days are very important for the market, either we bounce here and re-challenge recent highs off of oversold conditions, or we usher in a new wave of selling that could take us back down to the March lows.

The 17-point downward channel that we had seen the S&P trading in dating back to last Friday was broken yesterday afternoon.

Talk about a double-top quickly gaining steam. Will need to break and close above 1340 to end this discussion. A break below 1249 would confirm the double top.

Despite the sluggishness the market has exhibited since the beginning of the month, the market has only been able to peel off 1% since 4/1.

The market is now considered oversold in the very short-term.

S&P Fibonacci retracement levels to watch are 38.2% = 1305, 50% = 1294, 61.8% = 1283.

The longer-term trend of the market suggests the market is in a state of flux/confusion, with steep sell-offs taking place over the past two months, but no long-term downtrend having been established.

My conclusion: Bulls need to bounce in the next day or two, if not, could be a telling sign, that they are hanging it up for now.

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

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