Trading Plan for April 26, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): DISCK (36.79), RAX (43.46), HRB (17.39), GOOG (517.00)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 40% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): FOMC Meeting Begins, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), Consumer Confidence (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are up slightly heading into the open.
Asian markets were down close to 1%, European markets are currently up between 0.3% and 0.5%.
Like yesterday, we are looking at an open that will challenge the S&P 1340 stronghold.
We were unable to breakthrough it yesterday, but even though we are not breaking resistance, we are not selling off hard either, and ultimately I believe that will lead to us closing above 1340 in the very near-term.
In doing so, we nullify the much talked about double-top being formed, and instead we'll see new recovery highs instead.
Volume was very weak yesterday, showing that there should be little concern taken from the small amount of selling that we got yesterday.
Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has been formed on the daily charts - will confirm the pattern at a close above 1340.
Higher-low has been established at 1294.
Market is overbought in the short-term.
Keep in mind that the Fed is meeting today, and even holding a lunch-time press conference tomorrow - which is new. No idea what to expect there. Could be that they want to explain possible bad-news that could be contained within their FOMC Statement.
Silver is looking like it is in the process of rolling over here based on volatility and volume levels.
After 1340, minor resistance at recent highs of 1344, and major resistance at 1430. Between those two marks there is no other price resistance.
My conclusion: Very strong chance we breakthrough and hold 1340. If so, I will become more aggressive in my trading.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking: