Trading Plan for April 28, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): GOOG (524.00), ADI (38.99), CA (24.09), UNP (97.45), NFLX June 270 Calls, JNY (14.45), AMAT (15.49)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 62% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Pending Home Sales (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are slightly lower heading into the open.
Asia traded in a wide range - China was down 1.31% and Japan up 1.6%. Europe is trading, on average, moderately higher.
Ideal upside follow through yesterday after having broken through the critical 1340 level the day prior.
S&P is beginning to creep outside the upper bollingerband, which makes me more concerned with protecting profits at this point. We could see the market pullback at least a day or two to work off overbought conditions and get back inside the upper BB.
Volume has increased nicely each of the past two days.
Some minor resistance may be found at 1370, but the more significant level is at 1430 .
By breaking 1340, we confirmed the inverse head and shoulders that had been in development since February '11. Last time we confirmed a IH&S pattern was back in Sept '10 and we rallied 220 points after the confirmation.
On the 30min intraday charts, watch the 1350 level for support. Strong trendline in place off of the 4/18 lows. A break below 1350 would break this level.
Higher-low has been established at 1294.
Market is overbought in the short-term.
My conclusion: GDP, combined with Jobless Claims will largely dictate the course of the markets today. A strong move higher, will push me to begin booking profits in certain names.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking.