Trading Plan for August 1, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
European markets are trading in a mixed range from -0.3% up to +0.8%
Asian markets in a mixed range from -0.9% up to +0.1%
US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the bell
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), PMI Manufacturing Index (9am), Treasury Refunding Announcement (9am), ISM Manufacturing Index (10am), Construction Spending (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:15pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
After making a higher-high on Friday, the SPX has put completed a bearish 3-day Evening Star price pattern.
I'm very concerned about getting heavily long at this juncture in the market, particularly with FOMC slated for 2:15pm today and employment on the horizon, that could become market catalysts to the downside.
Volume picked back up yesterday, after a dismal showing on Monday.
Markets remain in short-term overbought levels as well as on the weekly.
Very nice bull flag forming on the SPX 30-min chart.
VIX is a huge concern as it continues to spike higher despite the market being relatively flat during the same 2-day time period, sitting just a shade below 19.
Trading on the first day of the month, typically sees some monster rallies and on lesser occasions, large sell-offs. Be prepared for a significant move today.
Resistance barriers have, including the down-trend off of the 4/2 highs, been broken on Friday. There aren't any major resistance barriers in the near term for the SPX to face. Minor resistance lies around 1402-6.
Current uptrend support lies at 1337.
If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1329 for a new lower-low in the market.
At this point, the goal for the bulls has to be to continue to trade higher and challenge the 1422 highs from 4/2 which are now well within reach.
Solid support formed at the 50-day moving average.
Of concern is the bearish crossover signal found in this week's SharePlanner Reversal Indicator. Caution is warranted.
My Opinions & Trades: