Trading Plan for August 30, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): QCOM Oct 60 Calls, AAPL Sept 420 Calls, SPY Sept 124 Calls, IR (31.32)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 8% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), Consumer Confidence (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am), FOMC Minutes (2pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are moderately lower heading into the open.
Asian markets were up over 1% in trading, while Europe is trading in a wide range from -0.7% up to +2.3%.
S&P finished up above previous highs in the market, and resistance, by breaking through 1208 and closing at 1210.
There will be some resistance on the underside of the July '09 rally, which is where the previous rally from earlier this month stalled out at. Its ascending price level today is at 1216.
FOMC Minutes will be released today, and Wall Street will look at it closely for hints of additional QE.
With the break of 1208 yesterday, we confirmed the double bottom that had been in development this month. Likely target for the market is between 1250 and 1260. Very little overhead resistance in the market until that point.
Support now is at 1175 for the market. A break below that level, would send prices likely down to 1120 (again).
Volume was low, but little can be made of it, due to the Irene impact on New York. Today should see normal volume levels return.
We gapped above and held the 20-day moving average perfectly yesterday.
Be aware of Fibonacci retracement levels on the S&P: 38.2%=1207, 50%=1233, 61.8%=1260.
My Conclusion: We may see some profit taking after a significant rally yesterday, but ultimately I believe this market heads higher over the next 1-2 weeks.
Here Are The Actions I'm Taking: