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Trading Plan for August 8, 2011

Recs

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August 08, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

 

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): QCOM Oct 60 Calls, AAPL Sept 420 Calls, SPY Aug & Sept 136 Calls

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 10% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): None

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are much lower, to the tune of more than 2%

 

Asian markets were down of -2%, while Europe is down between -0.5% and -2.1%

Friday as an incredibly volitile session, ending with the highest volume level on the S&P in over a year. 

We also closed Friday with one of the biggest doji candles that I have ever seen - a 50 point range that closed only 1 point lower than its open - Incredible. 

Large volume spikes like what we saw on Friday, often market the change of market direction. Check out 6/24, 3/16, and 11/30

S&P continues to hold the trendline for the second consecutive day - a trendline that began on the lows of July 2009. 

We also managed to hold the lows of last November - dropping down to those levels and then rally back higher. 

First thing on the agenda for the bulls will be to push back above the 1275 level and then the 1286 level, representing the 200-day moving average. 

S&P downgrade will be front and center tomorrow and the effect that it will have on the debt instruments. 

Be very, very, very aware of the possibilities of central banks world-wide and the news they may generate tomorrow. 

Fed meets on Tuesday, and that provides another great central bank market booster possibility. 

A lot of talk about ECB buying up a lot of Italian and Spanish debt this week. 

When we take this big of a hit, you can always count on the Fed and other central banks to come up with something to at least temporarily boost the markets. Don't fight it when it happens. 

Beyond last November's lows, we could see some support come in from last summer's highs around 1128. 

On H&S patterns, the length of the down turn is measured by taking the difference of the peak of the right shoulder and the neckline, and that is your target for a bottom. In this case, we are looking at aroughly 80-85 points of down side, which was more than completed/reached based on the intraday-lows from Frinday. 

We remain well outside the lower bollinger, for the fourth consecutive day. Typically this leads to strong bounces to the upside.

My Conclusion: Some new events to watch that could reverse the markets: drastic action taken by the Fed on Tuesday's FOMC statement and ECB intervention in the Italian and Spanish debt crisis taking place - that said, markets will reverse at some point, and Friday's volume spike indicated that it could take place beginning this week. 

Here Are The Actions I'm Taking:


 

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