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Trading Plan for February 14, 2012

February 14, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Business Inventories (10am)

Premarket Update (Updated 9am eastern):

US Futures are slightly down prior to the open

Asian markets saw trading higher by about 0.4% on average

European markets were mixed/flat despite fury of downgrades after yesterday's close. 

Technical Outlook (S&P):

Nice bounce yesterday following a significant sell-off on Friday that had dampened the market's mood. 

Very close to breaking out to new recent highs at  1354, which would likely lead to us testing 1370 (5/2/11 highs) shortly thereafter. 

If today's early morning weakness holds, watch support at the 10-day moving average which should be around 1343

After that, price support lies at 1326 and then again at 1300. A break of the latter in coming days would drastically change market behavior/outlook. 

30-min chart shows a strong  uptrend still in place with continuous higher-highs and higher-lows.

Mini-bullish island reversal formed on SPY yesterday. 

Volume was extremely weak yesterday, especially considering the price move we saw. 

We are coming off of short-term overbought conditions. 

The SharePlanner Reversal Indicator finally gave us a reversal signal both on the daily and weekly indicators. 

The S&P closed in negative territory for the first time in five weeks (weekly). 

My Opinions:

Chart: