Trading Plan for February 14, 2012
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Business Inventories (10am)
Premarket Update (Updated 9am eastern):
US Futures are slightly down prior to the open
Asian markets saw trading higher by about 0.4% on average
European markets were mixed/flat despite fury of downgrades after yesterday's close.
Technical Outlook (S&P):
Nice bounce yesterday following a significant sell-off on Friday that had dampened the market's mood.
Very close to breaking out to new recent highs at 1354, which would likely lead to us testing 1370 (5/2/11 highs) shortly thereafter.
If today's early morning weakness holds, watch support at the 10-day moving average which should be around 1343
After that, price support lies at 1326 and then again at 1300. A break of the latter in coming days would drastically change market behavior/outlook.
30-min chart shows a strong uptrend still in place with continuous higher-highs and higher-lows.
Mini-bullish island reversal formed on SPY yesterday.
Volume was extremely weak yesterday, especially considering the price move we saw.
We are coming off of short-term overbought conditions.
The SharePlanner Reversal Indicator finally gave us a reversal signal both on the daily and weekly indicators.
The S&P closed in negative territory for the first time in five weeks (weekly).