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Trading Plan for February 21, 2012

Recs

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February 21, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: QQQ , SPY , IWM

Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am)

Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern):

US Futures are slightly green heading into the open. 

Asian markets were mixed in trading.

European markets are trading lower by about -0.5%.

Technical Outlook (S&P):

Today's open will encompass the gains from Monday while the market was closed as well as last night and this morning's futures trading. 

1370, when looked through the prism of a 15-year chart, represents a very strong price level where markets have historically reversed at. 

Watch the highs from last year on 5/2/11 to potentially be tested, which also rests at 1370. 

Volume was higher on Friday, mostly due to it being options expiration. 

The S&P  has followed closely to the 10-day moving average since mid-December. However, the two breaks below that have occurred since, have meant very little for the bears. 

The 20-day moving average looks like a very strong rising support level and at 1337, if that price level broke, would represent a dramatic shift in market sentiment. 

We have yet to have a 1% pullback this year - the 13th longest such streak since 1928. 

And yes....We remain firmly in overbought territory. 

Hopefully Greece is behind the market now that they got their "agreement" (but doubt it). 

30-min chart shows a solid uptrend in place. 

Price level support lies at 1326 and then again at 1300. A break of the latter in coming days would drastically change market behavior/outlook. 

My Opinions:

Chart:

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