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Trading Plan for Jan 10, 2011



January 10, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): BZ (7.95), MI (6.77), MWV (26.08), 

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses)None

BIAS: 21% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): None

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are showing moderate strength heading into the open.

Asian and European markets are both showing weakness in trading today. 

S&P setting up to open at or below the 10-day moving average, which is something that hasn't occurred at all during the duration of this rally going back to 12/1.

Should we trade below 10-day moving average, the next area of support to watch is 20-day moving average. 

A break below 1251 would represent a "lower-low" in the market, and would greatly enhance the bearish cause going forward. 

Volume was fairly steady and slightly above average last week. 

Dip buying always is a strong possibility, even on days where the market is setting up for a strong push downwards. Be very careful when initiating new short positions in the afternoon, as that tends to be the best time for dip-buying to start ramping up. 

Hanging-Man candle pattern on the S&P Friday could be an early indication that bullish enthusiasm may be waning in the short-term, and could bring forth some additional selling. 

1276-8 is representative of the higher-high in this rally, and is providing short-term resistance. 

The more long-term trend-line dating back to 9/1 currently has support at 1234.

For the bears - At the very least close the day below the 10-day moving average - ideally  below Friday's lows. 

For the bulls - Needs to see some dip buying come in and support this market - close above the 10-day MA, but by no means lose the 20-day MA. 

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

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