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Trading Plan for Jan 13, 2011

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January 13, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): MWV (26.37), MMM (85.55), FCX (118.75), FSLR (135.30)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses)None

BIAS: 28% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): International Trade (8:30am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Bernanke Speaks (1pm), 

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are flat ahead of the Jobless Claims and Market Open. 

Asian markets showed moderate strength, while Europe had mixed results. 

Resistance was broken yesterday at 1278 and now represents short-term support. 

1261 represents the short-term 'higher-low' 

The very tight channel (see yesterday's market wrap-up for more detail) has price up against the upper channel, and could be an indication that the market may see some short-term weakness back in to the 1260's. 

Volume continues to be average, with no developing trends or concerns when examining it. 

Bollinger-band overlay on price shows that we are hitting the upper band (coinciding nicely with the narrow channel we are trading in), also leading me to believe that upward momentum could be somewhat limited in the short-term, until we a pullback of sorts. 

The more long-term trend-line dating back to 9/1 currently has support at 1242.

For the bears - Use the short-term overbought conditions of the market to push the market lower, and to take out some of yesterday's  gains, ideally half, which could create a bearish piercing pattern. 

For the bulls - In the short-term, its likely there will be some profit taking across the board, but until that happens, push this "higher-high" as high as possible. 

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

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