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Trading Plan for Jan 25, 2011

Recs

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January 25, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): QID (10.49), GLD (128.65), SDS (22.29)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses)PII (75.36), T (28.74)

BIAS: 21% Short (counting QID and SDS as shorts)

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9am), FHFA House Price Index (10am), Consumer Confidence (10am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are slightly negative heading into the open. 

Asian and European markets are trading in a mixed fashion, with the exception of the Nikkei which was up 1.15%.

A large plate of earnings will be served up today week that includes YHOO, JNJ, DD, MMM, HOG, MMM, BLK.

S&P continues to find support at the lower ascending support level of the narrow price channel. 

Volume was noticeably weaker than it has been in recent days. 

1291 acted as resistance yesterday, which is the same price level the index was unable to break through on Friday. 

Nasdaq continues to look much weaker than the S&P and is running into resistance still at the 10-day moving average. 

In order for this market to see a correction at this point, the bears need to break the 20-day moving average on the S&P.

A move to new highs in the market would effectively end, for now, any hopes the bears had of pushing this market lower, and instead would see more price expansion.

Evening star formation from 1/17-1/19 should indicate at least a short-term top is in place in this market.

1261 represents the short-term 'higher-low' on the daily charts.

For the bears - Push the S&P below the 10 day moving average and outside of the narrow rising price channel.

For the bulls - Buy up any intraday dips, and push market above recent highs. 

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

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