Trading Plan for July 1, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): ENZ (4.05), SPY July 130 Puts
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): STNG (10.39)
BIAS: 1% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), ISM Manufacturing Index (10am), Construction Spending (10am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are flat and mixed heading into the open.
Asia saw trading gains range from 0.5% up to 1.5%. Europe is currently seeing slight gains.
S&P is getting into dangerous territory in the short-term for initiating new long positions.
We nearly opened outside of the upper Bollinger-Band, and proceeded to move about 1% higher, which is highly unusual and very difficult to do and sustain. 80% of the price action was outside the upper band.
Often times though we'll see another day of follow through when we breakout of the upper band, but ultimately, I expect we'll see some sort of move back inside the upper band in the next 1 to 3 days. Upside is very limited here.
Short-term we are extremely oversold.
The strength and health of this market bounce off of the 200-day has been very encouraging, and ultimately, I think this market will continue to move higher in the weeks ahead.
With all the strength we've seen over the last 4 days, we are actually hitting resistance off of the downtrend that started on 5/2/11. We were unable to push through this resistance yesterday upon testing it, and need to see in the days ahead, the bulls muster the strength to push through the channel, and end its influence.
S&P successfully managed to push through the 50-day MA.
Three out of the last four trading days to begin the month has been overly bearish.
NYSE Reversal Indicator shows us that a rally over the next couple of weeks is likely.
My conclusion: I think we'll ultimately keep pushing higher, but in the weeks ahead, but in the next couple of days we'll see at least some profit taking and a pullback to get us out of oversold territory.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking: