Trading Plan for July 27, 2010
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 100% Cash
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9am), Consumer Confidence (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am).
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures up moderately.
Unbelievable how the market continues to rise on diminishing volume.
Last three days have been eerily similar to the rally we saw from 7/6 through 7/15 with very little volume - yet proved sustainable.
In past 14 days, we are up on 12 of them, flat on one other, and down only 2 days.
On pace to take out 1131 on S&P. Before we test, I think we will see a pullback in the next few days. Perhaps to 1100 at some point.
Careful with getting in long positions at this point. All indicators are in agreement that this market is well overbought - meaning that there is much more risk right now than there is upside - so wait for the pullback.
Consumer confidence could move the market this morning. In my opinion, I think that this particular indicator is lagging the current market bullishness, and could be one that we see disappoint and perhaps add some selling pressure to the market today. Actions I Will Be Taking: