Trading Plan for June 14, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): COOL (3.76), ONTY (6.56)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 5% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Business Inventories (10am), Bernanke Speaks (2:30pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are up strong this morning.
Asia, except for Hang Seng, is seeing +1% in gains today. Europe is seeing similar results.
The S&P formed a nice doji yesterday, indicating a temporary stalemate, after being down 7 out of the last 9 market sessions. Doji's, like yesterday's can often accompany changes in the current trend.
The Nasdaq is at an inflection point, and is looking to bounce off of the 200-day moving average. Should it eventually break this level, we could see a nasty move lower in the broader markets.
Today will represent a lot of short covering by the bears, which usually leads to a snow-ball effect. The key for the bulls, will be to turn this into a multi-day rally, and not just a one-time event.
The market continues to break down, closing in on the S&P price support at the 1250 (3/16 lows) level and the 200-day MA at 1253.
By most standards and indicators, we are as oversold as we were back in mid-March, which was also a pretty heavy sell-off too.
We have options expiration this week, which also adds a little bit of trickery to the week in general.
We have seen the first 6-straight weeks of selling since July '08 which at that time lasted only six weeks as well. The probability of further decline in the absence of a major news event, is less than likely.
My conclusion: Rally could be incredibly strong today, as long as we can avoid the tendency to want to fill the gap. But the bulls will need to build on the gains seen at the market open.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking