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Trading Plan for June 27, 2011

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June 27, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

 

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): SPY July 129 Calls, AAPL July 330 Calls, MHLD (7.04), KKD (8.65), 

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 13% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are slightly higher heading into the open. 

 

Asia saw losses range from -0.6% down to -1%. Europe is mixed and flat. 

Friday continued to pile on the losses from the day prior, extending the S&P losing streak to 3 straight days. The S&P is also down 7 out of the last 8 weeks of trading. 

The S&P on Friday showed an enormous amount of volume on Friday - typically we've only seen these kinds of volume levels on options expiration of late. Often times a large sudden volume spike can represent exhaustion in an existing trend. 

We are, yet again, about 4 points from test the 200-day moving average on the S&P again. If tested, expect the buyers to once again try and jump in and hold that level. 

Some of my more short-term to intermediate market indicators are showing that the market is setting up for a nice upside bounce in the days/weeks ahead.

This week, a move above 1296, and ultimately 1300 for the bulls would dampen the bears prospects for a significant move downward, and put in a 'higher-high' for the market. 

Greece will continue to be at the forefront of the news cycle, and will continue to affect market direction as well. 

My conclusion: Friday's move was quite surprising in my opinion, and am waiting to see whether the market can break the 200-day MA to the downside, or break 1300 to the upside. 

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

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