Trading Plan for June 27, 2011
June 27, 2011
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): SPY July 129 Calls, AAPL July 330 Calls, MHLD (7.04), KKD (8.65),
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 13% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are slightly higher heading into the open.
Asia saw losses range from -0.6% down to -1%. Europe is mixed and flat.
Friday continued to pile on the losses from the day prior, extending the S&P losing streak to 3 straight days. The S&P is also down 7 out of the last 8 weeks of trading.
The S&P on Friday showed an enormous amount of volume on Friday - typically we've only seen these kinds of volume levels on options expiration of late. Often times a large sudden volume spike can represent exhaustion in an existing trend.
We are, yet again, about 4 points from test the 200-day moving average on the S&P again. If tested, expect the buyers to once again try and jump in and hold that level.
Some of my more short-term to intermediate market indicators are showing that the market is setting up for a nice upside bounce in the days/weeks ahead.
This week, a move above 1296, and ultimately 1300 for the bulls would dampen the bears prospects for a significant move downward, and put in a 'higher-high' for the market.
Greece will continue to be at the forefront of the news cycle, and will continue to affect market direction as well.
My conclusion: Friday's move was quite surprising in my opinion, and am waiting to see whether the market can break the 200-day MA to the downside, or break 1300 to the upside.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:
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