Trading Plan for June 28, 2012
Pre-market Update (Updated 9:00am eastern):
US futures are moderately lower ahead of the open.
European markets are trading -1.1% lower.
Asian markets are traded in a wide range from -0.8% up to +1.8%.
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Corporate Profits (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am), Farm Prices (3pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
SPX has managed to rally for the second day in a row and there by establishing a potential new "higher-low' since the rally off of the 6/4 lows.
Unable to break through the 10-day moving average, and minor resistance at 1035.
Ideally, SPX needs to get back above 1360, to put to rest recent weakness, and the notion that the market is turning lower.
Below 1306-1308 price level, will nullify the current rally off of the 6/4 lows.
Would represent a 'lower-low' in the market.
We are coming off of the oversold territory.
Moderate gap downs like we are seeing this morning have been problematic for SPX to hold through out the day, and ultimately results in a notable rally off of those morning lows.
Recent exception was on 6/25 where SPX managed to continue selling off the initial gap-down.
Bulls have in place a bullish island reversal on the SPY chart, which is very similar to the one that we put in on 6/1-6/5 and rallied thereafter for a two-week period.
Weekly chart is showing a shooting-star pattern last week, followed by weakness to begin this week
Very traditional bearish pattern.
VIX just a shade below 20.
My Opinions & Trades: