Trading Plan for March 10, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): CPWR (11.37), TICC, PGH (12.65), LIZ (5.30), IRC (9.23), KEY (9.08), MPEL (7.11)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 39% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): International Trade (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), QUarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Treasury Budget (2pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are down moderately heading into the open.
Asian markets were down hard in overnight trading, ranging from -0.8% to -1.5% down, while European markets are seeing declines of about 0.75%.
China announced a surprise trade deficit, Spain's debt rating was downgraded, and Libya continues to be...well...Libya. So there is a lot of news weighing down the market this morning.
Narrowing triangle on the S&P (descending trend-line off of the 2/18 highs and the ascending trend-line off of the 2/24 lows) with weakened futures heading into the open, could lead to a breakdown in the market in an extended move.
50-day support could be in play on a strong move downward - the average is currently at 1301.
A breakout above 1327 should result in a move that will challenge recent highs.
Determining market direction for the days and weeks ahead at this point is a coin toss.
Lately volume has been tapering off ever so slightly. which fits in line nicely with the consolidation we've seen over the past few weeks.
Since the market highs on 2/18 oil has risen at its peak almost 26% while, the market has barely dropped 2%. It is surprising to me it hasn't been more of a decline in the S&P.
Of note, the 10-week moving average on the S&P weekly chart has provided unbelievable support off of the 9/1 rally, and we have yet to see a close below it which currently sits at 1307.
A break of S&P 1294 (last week's lows) would put in a lower-low in the markets, and confirm a downtrend being in place.
For the bears - As noted above the goal today is to push the market out of the ascending trend-line, and then below the 50-day moving average on the S&P.
For the bulls - Fade the market open, and push the market into positive territory.
My conclusion: Hard to take any solid stance in this market, especially with what we seen the last two weeks. At this point, you have to "Play it by ear" and expect the unexpected.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking: