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Trading Plan for March 13, 2012

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March 13, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , DIA , QQQ

Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Business Inventories (10am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:15pm)

Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern):

US Futures are moderately higher ahead of the open. 

Asian markets saw gains range from flat up to +1%.

European markets are up on average 1% right now. 

Technical Outlook (S&P):

The S&P is prime for a breakout above the recovery highs today. 

It is very important that the S&P  maintains its current gains and builds upon them into the close today. A failure/reversal in price would sport a potential double top on the daily chart. 

FOMC Statement released at 2:15pm EST today is a definite market catalyst to watch - major game changer to the upside last time, we'll see what this time holds for us. 

Since the rebound off of Tuesday's sell-off (distant memory for the market) we are looking our 3rd gap higher today on the daily chart. All of which remains unfilled. 

Volume dropped off quite a bit on Monday, and what we have seen since the bounce last Wednesday is volume levels close to what we saw the day before Christmas. 

Huge hanging man pattern on the S&P weekly chart - very bearish. 

Bullish island reversal pattern on the daily SPY chart. 

Bulls will be looking to get price action above 1378 as quickly as possible. 

The bears will need to get back below the 20-day moving average in short-order. 

A break of Tuesday's lows would signify the last three trading sessions of market strength being nothing more than a dead cat bounce and will lead to further action to the downside.  

The 30-minute chart is consolidating and with today's premarket strength is looking fairly good. 

My Opinions:

Chart:

 

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