Trading Plan for March 14, 2011
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC, MPEL (7.11), AAPL (338.23), CHK (30.76)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 31% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): None
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are down strong ahead of the open.
Japan's market dropped 7.8%! while the rest of Asia was slightly up. Europe was down across the board as much as 1.34%.
S&P rebounded nicely on Friday, but opened slightly below the 2/24 lows before recovering.
Price managed to close back above the 50-day moving average, but the volume wasn't overly impressive and was below average.
At this point, I have to assume that the rallies that we see going forward be considered dead-cat bounces.
S&P is at the cusp of ending the rally from 9/1 and beginning a new downtrend, if it manages to close below the lows from 2/24.
1275 on the S&P will be the next logical support level for the S&P to test if we break the 2/24 lows.
For the bears - Close below 1294 and end the 6 month rally of late.
For the bulls - Recover from the early morning losses that we are looking at, and if possible push higher than the Friday highs.
My conclusion: With recent selling of late, the market is starting to rapidly shift into the hands of the bears, in which all rallies should be viewed through a lense of skepticism.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking: