Trading Plan for March 29, 2012
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Corporate Profits (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am), Bernanke Speaks (12:45am), Farm Prices (3pm)
Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern):
US Futures are moderately down ahead of the open.
Asian markets were down about -1%.
European markets are seeing losses of about -1.1%
Technical Outlook (S&P):
Surprising sell-off yesterday, that recovered over half of its losses by the end of day. The S&P also managed to close a shade above its 10-day moving average, after trading below it for much of the session.
1386 is a key price/trend-line to watch off of the December lows. If we break that price level, I believe there is a good chance we test the 50-day moving average at around 1360.
Watch the previous lower-low also at 1386 as a break and close below that level would represent the first lower-low on the daily charts since the rally began back in November.
Volume picked up some and was higher than anything we've seen over the last two weeks.
One thing that is very concerning to me is the fact that we have about 3 gaps, dating back to 3/6 that have yet to be filled by the markets. Yesterday we filled the 3/27 gap perfectly before bouncing.
30-minute chart looks healthy, putting in higher-highs and higher lows.
Bearish wedge pattern forming in the intermediate term has yet to confirm, but looks ominous.
One major concern for equities is the % of stocks that continue to trade below its 40-day moving average and that continues to drop daily.
The next price-level resistance can be found at 1428.