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Trading Plan for March 8, 2011

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March 08, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): CPWR (10.90), TICC (11.90), PGH (12.65), EMC (26.38)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses)None

BIAS: 20% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are slightly positive ahead of the open, despite being up as much as 9+ points on the S&P overnight. 

Asian markets finished the day higher with the Hang Seng up as much as 1.7%. Europe saw some weakness with the DAX down as much as 1.2%.

A significant sell-off today, would allow for a test of the 50-day moving average at 1297. We haven't touched the 50 since November '10. 

Small end of day rally yesterday, managed to keep us above the existing trendline - but barely. 

Volume continues to remain on par, but no where near the leels we saw a couple of weeks ago whe the market was selling off hard.

After yesterday, the S&P is now trading below the 10 and 20-day MA's. 

Yesterday, despite oil  trying to sell off for much of the trading session, the Market showed no positive resonse to the upside. 

Dollar is to trying to bounce nicely after touching the lows from Oct/Nov last year. 

A break of S&P 1294 (last week's lows) would put in a lower-low in the markets, and confirm a downtrend being in place.

For the bears - Provide follow through to yesterday and get below last week's lows and the 50-day moving average.

For the bulls - Getting close to having this market move rapidly against them.  Need to avoid an additional sell-off of any kind and push the market back above Friday's highs. 

My conclusion: Hard to take any solid stance in this market, especially with what we seen the last two weeks. At this point, you have to "Play it by ear" and expect the unexpected.

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking.

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