Trading Plan for Nov. 15, 2010
Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC (10.28), MCD (77.74), CTXS (64.13), MENT (11.08), MON (61.20), GS (160.40), HRS (44.99), HTZ (11.78), KR (22.36)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 73% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Retail Sales (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Business Inventories (10am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are slightly up.
Asian markets were mixed, European markets are rallying off their lows, but still remain mixed in their returns.
S&P broke and closed below the 10-day average. Throughout the duration of the current trend, when this has happened, there has been a strong rally the following market session.
The current trend-line flattened out a little more - something that has consistently taken place throughout this rally. But no lower-low has been established.
S&P found support at the 20-day moving average. Which it has not closed below since 9/1.
On the weekly charts, the S&P held support at the 200-week moving average. A break below this moving average could signal a major move downwards.
We'll have POMO every day this week.
One big question surrounding Wall Street is whether QE2 will represent a "sell-the-news" type of event.
The volume from the previous two market sessions has been nothing spectacular - very average.
Main goal for the bulls is to hold the 20-day moving average; best case scenario is close above the previous day's highs at 1210, or reclaim the 10-day moving average.
Throughout this year, the bears have been burned numerous times by not taking profits after significant market sell-offs. Could lead to them being all-to-willing to do so today.
Bears should aim to close below 20-day moving average at 1195, and the lows from Friday. Ideally, a close below 1183, would cause a lot of problems for the bulls.
Actions I Will Be Taking: