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Trading Plan for Sept. 29, 2010

September 29, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC (9.48), BRKR (12.95), CVX (76.89), DAL (11.05), ELY (6.39), ITW (44.45), SSO (38.03), QQQQ (48.06)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): LMT (76.35)

BIAS: 73% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Farm Prices 3pm).

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are mixed.

The 1150 level on the S&P is becoming a huge hindrance for the bulls now. Currently 0 for 3. Another test today is likely in the cards.

Important for the bulls to push through 1150, or their 3-day highs as it could spur on another round of short-covering. Russell 2000 was the only major index to do this.

Volatility could increase as we approach the end-of-quarter.

Last 5 quarter-end days have resulted in negative returns. Last positive day was March '09.

Only 1 of the past 4 quarter-end weeks have had bullish returns (3 out of 6 dating back to January '09)

If the bulls can break through 1150, next step would be 1173.

Bears need to push this market below 1131 and ultimately 1122.

Hanging Man candle pattern yesterday is a bit of a concern for the bulls - bearish signal?

Asian markets finished in the green and European are slightly negative.

Thursday could set up to be a wild day with GDP and Jobless Claims due.

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking: