Trading Plan for September 13, 2012
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
European markets are mixed, but overall trading -0.4% lower.
Asian markets mixed as well, finished flat on the day.
US futures are trading flat with slight negative bias ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), FOMC Statement (12:30pm), FOMC Forecasts (2pm), Treasury Budget (2pm), Bernanke Press Conference (2pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
Slight bump higher in yesterday's market action.
Beautiful bull-flag forming over the last four days on the SPX. A move beyond 1437, would represent a breakout on the daily.
Should a sell-off ensue after the Fed action/comments today, look for support to come in at 1419.
Expect a lot of volatility today with the FOMC statement coming out at 12:30pm est, followed by a senseless press conference at 2pm est.
SPX still remains slightly overbought.
Volume slightly elevated. Historically - its still unusually low, but picking up 'some' as we head into the final stretch of Q3 and into Q4.
Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1400.
Test at 1440 resistance is in play today. While there isn't a lot of resistance overhead, this is a minor resistance level worth noting.
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator shows a bearish divergence which is worth noting.
30-min chart shows the same bull-flag pattern as the daily with tight consolidation at the highs.
VIX back below 16. .
One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades: