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SharePlanner (< 20)

Trading Plan for September 14, 2011

Recs

1

September 14, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

 

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): QCOM Oct 60 Calls, SDS (22.84) ~ Inverse of S&P

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): PH (68.25), WWWW (8.32), BSX (6.32)

BIAS: 40% Short

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Business Inventories (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

Futures are up moderately heading into the open.

 

Asian markets were down about 1%, Europe is rallying on average well over 2%.

S&P's rally  appeared sluggish at best but nonetheless did finish nearly 1% higher yesterday. However, it failed to break through the 20-day moving average when tested. 

Rumors are swirling this morning and have lifted the markets off of its overnight lows. 

Look for a max rally to 1192 before stalling out - Resistance comes from the descending trend-line off of the 7/22 highs.  

Bearish flag breakdown occurs at 1152 on the S&P. If we break that level, look for a fresh leg down in this market to occur. 

Volume has remained below average over the last two trading sessions. 

Best case scenario for the bulls is a rally to the upper band yet again for the bear flag pattern which would be somewhere around 1247 up to 1255.

I still believe that ultimately we move lower, and will see another drastic move that likely breaks our recent lows from 8/9 in this market.

As always, you need to be on your 'tippe-toes' for possible 'intervention' news to help stymie the situation (like what we've seen this entire week).

Support level that you need to watch today: Rising support off of the 8/9 lows (bear flag support) at 1152, followed by 1120 where there is significant support for the bulls, and then 1101 which is where the 8/9 intraday lows are at. All three of these could ultimately come into play today.

If the market breaks below 1101 on the S&P, then we are almost assured of seeing a test of the major support level at 1040 in the coming weeks.

My Conclusion: I think this pre-market pop is short lived, and will work as an opportunity for bears to reload at higher prices. 

 

Here Are The Actions I'm Taking:

 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 15, 2011 at 1:30 AM, traderbach (< 20) wrote:

Thank you Shareplanner!

My gut & the economic trends right now tell me you are right.  I am going to more cash, selling the spikes.  We'll see if we're right.  Appreciate your posts, nice to hear sound sense amongst so much noise!

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#2) On September 15, 2011 at 9:23 AM, SharePlanner (< 20) wrote:

Thanks traderbach! Glad to hear you like the posts

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