Trading Plan for September 15, 2011
Current Long Positions: QCOM Oct 60 Calls, SDS ~ Inverse of S&P
Current Short Positions: PH, WWWW, BSX
BIAS: 40% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Current Account (8:30am), Industrial Production (9:15am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
Futures are just slightly up.
Asian markets were up over 1% on average, and Europe is trading over 2% on average.
Market rallied nicely up to and against the steep upper-line of the downward channel. That means we are at an inflection point heading into the open. A close above 1187 today will be significant.
The next resistance level after the aforementioned, would be 1230, where the previous rally stalled out at.
If we sell-off today, watch for rising support on the bear flag at 1154. If it closes below that level, then you will likely see a new leg down in this market.
Yesterday's close is still showing that the market 'rips' are being sold, and that there is a very low level of trust. These rallies that we are seeing has more to do with short covering than they do with actual buying.
Volume was in line, but slightly higher, to what we've seen over the past few days.
S&P managed to break through and close above the 10 and 20-day moving average.
Best case scenario for the bulls is a rally to the upper band yet again for the bear flag pattern which this time would be somewhere around 1247 up to 1255.
I still believe that ultimately we move lower, and will see another drastic move that likely breaks our recent lows from 8/9 in this market.
As always, you need to be on your 'tippe-toes' for possible 'intervention' news to help stymie the situation (like what we've seen this entire week).
Support level that you need to watch today: Rising support off of the 8/9 lows (bear flag support) at 1154, followed by 1120 where there is significant support for the bulls, and then 1101 which is where the 8/9 intraday lows are at. All three of these could ultimately come into play today.
If the market breaks below 1101 on the S&P, then we are almost assured of seeing a test of the major support level at 1040 in the coming weeks.
My Conclusion: Not sure how high this rally goes, but ultimately I think it is going to get sold off. There seems to be some false optimism over the situation in Greece.
Here Are The Actions I'm Taking: